A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO ADDING PATIENT HETEROGENEITY INTO PHASE III TRIALS- RESULTS FROM IMI GETREAL WP2

Author(s)

Karcher H1, Fu S2, Nordon C3, Efthimiou O4, Schneeweiss S5, Abenhaim L1
1LASER Analytica, London, UK, 2LASER Analytica, Loerrach, Germany, 3LASER Analytica, Paris, France, 4University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece, 5Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA

OBJECTIVES: Phase III trials typically exclude patients with certain baseline characteristics, such as older age or co-morbidities, and thereby hamper learning of new drugs’ effectiveness in real-life. A simulation study was conducted to support implementation of new inclusion criteria for Phase 3 trials in schizophrenia without increasing sample size nor compromising detection of the new drug effect. METHODS: A simulation study was performed examining the impact of re-introducing through stratifying by each of the following excluded patients population: age > 65 years, duration of illness < 3 years, patients with previous suicide attempts, patients with history of alcohol or substance abuse, and patients treated in private practices.  Patients with these characteristics were multiplied in a synthetic trial population until their real-life proportion in schizophrenia was reached. The simulation used data subsets from the 10,281-patient observational SOHO cohort study.  A “base case RCT” was created by applying typical Phase 3 exclusion criteria. A series of “synthetic RCTs” were defined by replacing patients with SOHO patients that were initially excluded. The real-life drug effect was predicted from each synthetic RCT through regression models and compared with the real-life effect in SOHO. RESULTS: Perhaps surprisingly, effects of all 3 investigated drugs were found to be larger in real-life than in the base case RCT. Synthetic RCTs were created by replacing patients of the base RCT with patients with a given baseline characteristic. Prediction of real-life effects improved with increasing replacement in terms of mean squared prediction errors and coverage of confidence interval. However, the impact of introducing these "real-life" populations was not equal among factors. For instance, introducing older patients minimally improved prediction of real-life effects, while allowing inclusion of just 5% of patients with past suicide attempts (who make up 25% of the real-life schizophrenia population) significantly improved effectiveness predictions.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2015-11, ISPOR Europe 2015, Milan, Italy

Value in Health, Vol. 18, No. 7 (November 2015)

Code

PRM252

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference

Disease

Mental Health

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