THE STABILITY OF ADDITIVE TREATMENT EFFECTS IN MULTIPLE TREATMENT COMPARISON META-ANALYSIS- A SIMULATION STUDY

Author(s)

Thorlund K1, Mills E21McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada, 2University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada

OBJECTIVES: Medical interventions are often administered as treatment combinations (e.g., drug A + drug B). Models for effects of treatment combinations in multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis (MTCs) have previously been proposed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the comparative statistical performance of the conventional MTC model and an ‘additive effects’ MTC model, in scenarios where ‘additivity’ holds true (i.e., where the effect of effect of treatment A and B combined is equal to the sum of the individual effects of treatment A and treatment B) and in scenarios where ‘additivity’ is mildly or strongly violated. METHODS: We simulated MTC scenarios where additivity held true or was violated. We applied conventional and additive effects Bayesian MTC models to the simulated data. We measured the proportion of over- and underestimated treatment effects, the coverage of the 95% credible intervals, and the statistical power.  RESULTS: Under true additivity, the additive effects model is superior to the conventional model. Under mildly violated additivity, the additive model is less accurate (more over- and underestimates), but more precise (comparable coverage and greater power). Under strongly violated additivity, the additive model performs worse in terms of accuracy and coverage. CONCLUSIONS: The additive model may readily be used in practice when approximate additivity can be assumed.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2012-06, ISPOR 2012, Washington, D.C., USA

Value in Health, Vol. 15, No. 4 (June 2012)

Code

PRS52

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Modeling and simulation

Disease

Respiratory-Related Disorders

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