OBJECTIVES To forecast the number of advanced melanoma (AM) patients (Stage III unresectable and Stage IV) newly initiating treatment over 5 years (2014-2018) by line of therapy and clinical/tumor characteristics including BRAF/PD-L1 mutations status and rate of brain metastases.  METHODS A patient count model was developed to forecast the AM population using historical rate data (1991-2012) and other population parameters including incidence rate annual percent change, stage at diagnosis, rates of disease progression and survival obtained through a comprehensive literature review and hand-search of cancer registry websites. Analysis of a cross-sectional sample (Ipsos Global Oncology Monitor) of 1,297 patients in the EU-5 was used to address any clinical data gaps. The model was validated by comparing projected 5-year prevalence rates to GLOBOCAN 2012 estimates. RESULTS The model-projected number (rounded to nearest 100) of incident melanoma cases for 2014 was: Germany= 23,100; UK=18,900; France=12,400; Italy=12,000; Spain=5,800.Of incident cases, 11.3%-13.0% were treatment eligible AM. Incidence rates increases of 1.7-7.8% per year were applied based on historical trends. Analysis of IPSOS data and review of the literature showed BRAF and PD-L1 prevalence rates of 45.4%-56.2% and 15.9%-16.7%, in AM patients, respectively. Literature-derived, brain metastasis prevalence ranged from 15.9-36.0% in Stage IV patients. Considering case progression, resection and adjuvant treatment rates,  the forecasted number of AM patients eligible for 1^stand 2^nd  line treatment in 2018 is, respectively: Germany=3,700 and 1,700; UK=3,100 and 1,400 France=1,900 and 500; Italy=1,800 and 1,000; Spain=1,100 and 400, representing approximately 10.8-12.0% of incident cases. CONCLUSIONS While melanoma incidence is projected to increase over the next 5 years the majority of incident cases will be diagnosed in earlier disease stages. Under these assumptions, the largest proportion of the incident melanoma population that is AM patients initiating treatment is expected to be 12% in 2018, a slight decline from 13% in 2014.