OBJECTIVES Mendez et aldeveloped a dynamic forecasting model to predict the prevalence of smoking.  They use initiation and prevalence rates (data from 1965-1993) and estimate cessation rates for that period. Further, they assume the persistence of the cessation rates and predict future prevalence of smoking. We re-created the Mendez et al model in order to estimate smoking cessation rates (n) and updated cessation rates for 2000-2012 using newly available data on smoking prevalence (R). Further, smoking prevalences for the decade 2012-2024 were predicted based on a couple of alternate hypotheses of smoking initiation METHODS We re-created the Mendez model in Excel, including the mathematical manipulations for estimates of mean rates of cessation from the years 1970-1994 and used the re-created Mendez model set-up and newly available data on smoking prevalence (R), initiation etc. to estimate cessation rates between 2001 and 2012. Further, we predicted smoking prevalences for 2012-2024 and explored a couple of different scenarios of smoking initiation. Birth and death rates of the general population are assumed to be the average of the previous decade. Relative Risk of mortality is assumed to be the same. RESULTS Smoking prevalence in 2024 is estimated to be 18.5% , even with alternate hypotheses around smoking initiation in the 2012-2022 decade. CONCLUSIONS Aging of smoker population will continue to contribute to reducing prevalence of smokers. Existing dynamic forecasting models were re-created and used to estimate smoker prevalence using recent data. REFERENCES

1. Mendez D, Warner KE, Courant PN. , Has smoking cessation ceased? Expected trends in the prevalence of smoking in the United States.  Am J Epidemiol. 1998 Aug 1;148(3):249-58