NOVEL USE OF MULTIVARIATE JOINT MODELLING TO IDENTIFY PATIENT LEVEL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH TREATMENT FAILURE – EXAMPLE OF BOTOX TREATMENT FOR PATIENTS WITH OVERACTIVE BLADDER
Author(s)
Owen RK*;Crowther MJ;Tincello DG, Abrams KR University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
BACKGROUND: Detrusor overactivity (DO) is characterised by the symptoms of overactive bladder (OAB) including incontinence, urgency, and voiding episodes; though, identification of a cardinal symptom still remains unclear, where treatment efficacy is often evaluated across multiple outcomes. As a result, ascertainment of the most patient impacting symptom is crucial. Joint modelling allows us to evaluate the association between surrogate outcome measures such as patients’ symptom profiles and time to perceived treatment failure. OBJECTIVES: To determine the most associated OAB symptom with patients’ perceived time of treatment failure using a novel application of a joint modelling framework. METHODS: To account for the potential correlation between symptoms, we applied a joint model of multivariate longitudinal and time-to-event data to a randomised clinical trial of patients receiving botulinum toxin for DO. We investigate the association of incontinence, urgency and voiding episodes collected at baseline, 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months, on patients’ perceived time of treatment failure. RESULTS: The multivariate joint model was applied to 122 patients (270 data points) with 69 (56.6%) patients reporting treatment failure. The results identified urgency as the most impactful surrogate measure on patients’ perceived time of treatment failure, with an estimated hazard ratio of 1.26 (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.64) for every additional urgency episode. Incontinence, voiding episodes and the interaction between symptom measures had a non-significant association. However, in this example, sensitivity to the model choice produced inconsistent estimates due to the limited nature of the data set and therefore results should be interpreted cautiously. CONCLUSIONS: This approach illustrates the advantage of applying a joint modelling framework to identify symptoms most associated with time to treatment failure. With an increasing need to identify and assess core symptoms for varying medical conditions, the novel use of a joint modelling approach would appear to be extremely promising.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2013-11, ISPOR Europe 2013, The Convention Centre Dublin
Value in Health, Vol. 16, No. 7 (November 2013)
Code
PRM207
Topic
Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference
Disease
Urinary/Kidney Disorders