DEALING WITH ZERO CELLS IN SPARSE NETWORKS IN BAYESIAN NETWORK META-ANALYSIS

Author(s)

Ivanescu C*1;Skaltsa K2;Heemstra L1, Van Engen A1 1Quintiles, Hoofddorp, Netherlands, 2Quintiles, Barcelona, Spain

OBJECTIVES: Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis (NMA) models for binary data are well established and special precautions do not usually need to be taken in the case of zero cell counts. Furthermore, trials with zero cells in both arms are usually excluded from the analysis. However, in sparse networks with only one trial per comparison and zero cells in unique link studies, their inclusion may be mandatory. Zero frequencies may result in numerical instability and/or large variances. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of different methods dealing with zero cells in sparse networks in Bayesian NMA. METHODS: A review was conducted to identify methods dealing with zero cells for binary outcomes in sparse networks in a Bayesian setting. The identified methods were applied to a sparse network with six treatments and one study per comparison. The outcome was grade 3+ Adverse Events and measured by Odds Ratio. A fixed effects model was fitted with binomial likelihood. The performance of the methods was assessed by the residual deviance and the Credible Intervals’ (CrI) width was compared. RESULTS: We identified three methods: apply a continuity correction (a constant factor of 0.5 or the reciprocal of the opposite treatment size), use of informative priors on treatment effects and placing a distribution on the baseline model. We applied all methods and combinations of them. The model fit was adequate for all methods (residual deviance [10;12.3] for 12 datapoints). The use of different informative priors improved the variability estimates. CrI widths were reduced up to 15 times with respect to the original model with vague priors. CONCLUSIONS: Although the debate on the inclusion of studies with zero events in NMA is still open, our research shows that methods are available to address this issue. However, no clear recommendations can be provided.

Conference/Value in Health Info

2013-11, ISPOR Europe 2013, The Convention Centre Dublin

Value in Health, Vol. 16, No. 7 (November 2013)

Code

PRM219

Topic

Methodological & Statistical Research

Topic Subcategory

Confounding, Selection Bias Correction, Causal Inference

Disease

Multiple Diseases

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