MODELING THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN BREAST CANCER TREATMENT ON THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF MAMMOGRAPHY SCREENING
Author(s)
Shih YCT1, Venier J1, Munsell M1, Cantor SB1, Elting LS1, Ravdin P2, Berry DA11University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA, 2Adjuvant! Online, San Antonio, TX, USA
OBJECTIVES: The association between treatment advances and dissemination and the cost-effectiveness of cancer screening is largely unknown. This study addressed the above association among breast cancer patients. METHODS: Using a Bayesian microsimulation model, we followed a hypothetical cohort of 1 million women born in 1960 throughout their lifetimes. We compared no screening strategy to eight mammography screening strategies that consisted of a combination of different initiation age (40 vs. 50), cessation age (74 vs. 79), and frequency (annual vs. biennial) of screening. Upon identifying the most cost-effective strategy, we then applied probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) to explore the impact of different patterns of treatment dissemination on the cost-effectiveness of screening. RESULTS: At the societal willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $50,000 per life year (LY) gained and with the dissemination pattern prior to the availability of trastuzumab, the most cost-effective screening strategy was biennial screening for women aged 50-74. The probability that this strategy was more cost-effective than the no screening strategy was 0.43, followed by biennial screening 50-79 (prob=0.41), biennial screening 40-79 (prob = 0.08), and biennial screening 40-74 (prob = 0.04). At a WTP of $100,000/LY, the probabilities increased to 0.89, 0.87, 0.76, and 0.72, respectively. Results from the PSA indicated that when adding trastuzumab to the base case dissemination pattern, the probability that the biennial screening 50-74 strategy was more cost-effective than the no screening strategy at a WTP of $100,000/LY decreased from 0.89 to 0.83, and the probability further reduced to 0.60 if the optimal dissemination pattern (e.g., all patients with HER2 overexpression received trastuzumab) was achieved. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that improvements in treatment dissemination may paradoxically lead to a reduction in the cost-effectiveness of screening suggests that identifying and designing cost-effective strategies to allocate health care resources across the continuum of cancer care is likely to yield higher gains.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2010-05, ISPOR 2010, Atlanta, GA, USA
Value in Health, Vol. 13, No. 3 (May 2010)
Code
CN1
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Oncology