QUEUING STATISTICAL MODEL - A NEW TOOL FOR PRELIMINARY COST-EFFECTIVENESS ASSESSMENTS
Author(s)
Kucharczyk P1, Jahnz-Rozyk K2, Kucharczyk A2, Pancer K31Military Health Institute of Medicine, Warsaw, Poland, 2Military Institute of Medicine, Warsaw, Poland, 3National Institute of Public Health, Warsaw, Poland
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that one central laboratory would be more cost-effective than several local laboratories because price of single Chlamylege test depends on number of simultaneous tests performed. Incidence of pneumonia requiring hospitalization in Poland is app.4/1000 persons/year. For hypothetical population of one million people 4 000/ year will require hospitalization for pneumonia (VIP). We established seasonal incidence using clinical database of Military Medical Institute Warsaw. New statistical method (Queuing Model)was used. METHODS: Two simulation models were constructed for one million inhabitants: one, where four hospital laboratories exist, performing 10-50 tests. Second, where large central laboratory exists performing 50-200 tests. Three scenarios of morbidity were established: 1) 3000 outpatients, 1000 inpatients, equal number of patients over year; 2) 3000 outpatients, 1000 inpatients, number of patients/month related to seasonality (4 seasons specified); 3) increased influx of patients: 12000 outpatients and 4000 inpatients; number of patients/month related to seasonality. RESULTS: 1) in central laboratory significantly smaller number of samples were tested (mean 0.25vs0.75); 2) quarter 1 (increased patients influx) % tested in central laboratory was significantly higher but still smaller than in the local labs (0.92vs.0.95) whereas in quarter 3 (decreased patients influx) less tests performed(0.2777 vs. 0.0005); and 3) % of tests made in central lab is much higher, but still not exceeding number of tests performed in local labs ( 0.82vs.0.83). Central laboratory performed less tests comparing to local labs and periods of inactivity were noted which significantly increased cost of a single test. CONCLUSIONS: According to Queuing Model it was confirmed that creation of the central laboratory is not reasonable in terms of costs. We conclude that Queuing Statistical Model can be a useful tool for preliminary assessment ofthe cost-effectiveness of hypothesized research methodology.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2012-11, ISPOR Europe 2012, Berlin, Germany
Value in Health, Vol. 15, No. 7 (November 2012)
Code
PRS29
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost-comparison, Effectiveness, Utility, Benefit Analysis
Disease
Respiratory-Related Disorders