REVENUE OPTIMISATION MODEL TO OPTIMISE POSITION AND INDICATION OF NEW LAUNCHES
Author(s)
Mukku S, McConkey DDouble Helix Consulting Group, London, United Kingdom
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact on revenues from a new drug in different indications and at different positions within a treatment pathway METHODS: The model was developed by price modeling experts at Double Helix Consulting using a logical flow developed over years. The model is tested by internal and external experts with different products. RESULTS: Drugs that reach to market very rarely are released in only a single indication, especially in chronic disease areas where there may be several different illnesses with a related etiology but different presentation. This is exemplified in the field of immunology and rheumatology, where several different drugs with a similar MOA are being used to treat many conditions that are pathophysiologically related. To explore the impact that multiple indications or use in different lines has or will have on the pricing of a new therapeutic agent, Double Helix Consulting generated a revenue optimization model that can be used to establish the most likely price point for a new drug given several different scenarios. This model will help in optimising the best position and or indication for long term revenues from the drug. The model uses EPI data, prevalence, incidence, number of competitors, prices of comparators, line of treatment and other inputs. The outputs include NPV over a chosen period of time that can be sorted by line of treatment and indication. CONCLUSIONS: While it is desirable for a drug to be indicated in the largest patient pool possible, such actions can have serious negative consequences for the price at which payers are willing to pay for the treatment. A larger patient pool makes the burden on the healthcare provider significant if the drug is too expensive, and as a result can lead to significant price erosion or HTA rejection.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2010-11, ISPOR Europe 2010, Prague, Czech Republic
Value in Health, Vol. 13, No. 7 (November 2010)
Code
PMC22
Topic
Methodological & Statistical Research
Topic Subcategory
Modeling and simulation
Disease
Multiple Diseases