INDIVIDUALLY-BASED DYNAMIC MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES- COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ADOLESCENT PERTUSSIS BOOSTER VACCINATION FOR THE NETHERLANDS
Author(s)
de Vries R, Postma MUniversity of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
OBJECTIVES: Despite widespread immunization programs, a clear increase in pertussis incidence is apparent in many developed countries during the last decades. Consequently, additional immunization strategies are considered to reduce the burden of disease. This study aims at designing an individually-based dynamic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of adolescent pertussis booster vaccination in The Netherlands. METHODS: We designed a discrete event simulation (DES) model to predict the epidemiological and economic consequences of implementing universal adolescent vaccination. We used national age-specific notification data over the period 1996-2000 -corrected for underreporting- to calibrate the model assuming a steady state situation. Thereafter adolescent vaccination was introduced. Other input parameters of the DES-model were obtained from literature and, if not available, from expert opinions (e.g. on waning immunity). Subsequently, medical unit costs from national guidelines were attached to pertussis-related resource use and linked to the epidemiological outcomes. As there is no consensus on the duration of immunity acquired by natural infection, we considered two scenarios that differed in duration of protection (i.e. 8y and 15y). RESULTS: Although the steady state situation resulted in different ratios of symptomatic versus asymptomatic cases (0.10:0.90 and 0.17:0.83 in the whole population for the 15- and 8-year scenario respectively), the total incidence decreased in the whole population as a result of adolescent vaccination in both scenarios. From a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness was estimated at €4418/QALY (range: 3205-6364 € per QALY) and €6371/QALY (range: €4139-9549 per QALY) for the 8-year and 15-year protection scenarios respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the outcomes are most sensitive to the quality of life weights used for pertussis disease. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge we designed the first individually-based dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population. This study indicates that adolescent pertussis vaccination is likely to be a cost-effective intervention for The Netherlands.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2009-10, ISPOR Europe 2009, Paris, France
Value in Health, Vol. 12, No. 7 (October 2009)
Code
VA5
Topic
Clinical Outcomes
Topic Subcategory
Comparative Effectiveness or Efficacy
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Vaccines