OBJECTIVES: There is growing interest in technology-based programs to support self-management of COPD. We conducted a value-of-information analysis to estimate the value of additional research of a web-based self-management intervention for COPD that may reduce the expected costs of uncertainty by reducing the uncertainty in the evidence base.

METHODS: Using data from a recent randomized controlled trial, published literature, and the National Inpatient Sample, we used a 10,000-iteration cost-effectiveness model from the public payer perspective to calculate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) at the patient- and population-level. An opportunity loss was incurred when the web-based intervention did not produce a greater net monetary benefit than usual care in an iteration. We calculated mean opportunity loss (EVPI_individual) and probability of opportunity loss as a function of baseline health utility (0 [death] – 1 [perfect health]). We multiplied the mean opportunity losses by the projected incident population of inpatient COPD patients over 10 years (EVPI_population) and estimated it as a function of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold.

RESULTS: An opportunity loss was found in 22.7% of the iterations. The mean opportunity loss was $66 per patient (95% CI: $64, $69). The probability that the intervention was the optimal strategy increased as baseline health utility decreased. The EVPI_population was calculated as $429,378,714 for a WTP of $50,000. The EVPI associated with the web-based physical activity intervention for COPD ranged from $33,979,212 to $916,888,063, for WTP thresholds ranging from $5,000 to $100,000, respectively. The EVPI_population peaked at a WTP of $12,000 ($916,888,063) and declined as the threshold increased.

CONCLUSIONS: The website was not the optimal strategy in 22.7% of the iterations. The EVPI varied by baseline health utility. Future research focused on identifying the impact of baseline health utility on the effectiveness of the intervention would maximize the cost savings of the intervention.