OBJECTIVES: To estimate the disease burden of mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) under the current treatment pattern in China.

METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to simulate the Chinese patients with MCL and the age and gender-matched Chinese general population over lifetime horizon for the differences in overall survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lifetime direct medical costs. A literature search was conducted to identify appropriate evidence to estimate the model variables. Base case analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted for the point estimations and uncertainty of the disease burden of MCL.

RESULTS: The Chinese MCL patients were associated with reduced average overall survival by 8.249 years (9.220 years vs. 17.469 years), reduced average QALY by 9.604 QALY (5.905 QALY vs. 15.509 QALY), and increased average life-time direct medical costs by ¥1,288,519 (¥1,398,569 vs. ¥110,050). The reduced lifetime QALY associated with MCL was sensitive to beast supportive care rate (change: -2.282 QALY), the mortality of the progressive disease (change: -1.603 QALY), and the utility of progression-free survival (change: 1.436 QALY). The increased lifetime direct medical costs associated with MCL was sensitive to best supportive care rate of relapsed and refractory MCL (change: ¥-592,355), body surface area (change: ¥328,341), the mortality of the progressive disease (change: ¥-263,494), and drug acquisition costs of rituximab (change: ¥241,978). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations estimated the median and 95% credible interval of reduced QALY (-9.868 QALY, -11.536 QALY to -8.024 QALY) and increased lifetime direct medical costs ( ¥1,243,188, ¥920,786 to ¥1,578,853).

CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of MCL in Chinese patients was characterized by reduced overall survival, reduced QALY, and increased medical costs that were sensitive to the utility of progression-free survival, best supportive care rate, first-line and second-line treatment effects, the mortality of progressive disease, and drug acquisition costs of rituximab.