OBJECTIVES : Our aim was to assess the effects of the public health product tax of Hungary (introduced in September 2011) through an examination of Hungarian households’ expenditure trends among different income groups.

METHODS : Data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office’s “Hungarian Household Budget and Living Conditions Survey” were used from 2006 to 2017. We analysed annual, gross expenditure per capita on sweets (COICOP group “Sugar and confectionary”, 01.1.8). We calculated real value for each year with consumer price index (base: 2017). Interrupted time series analysis with generalized least squares regression was used for comparing pre- (2006-2011) and post-tax trends (2012-2017) of expenditure. Expenditures of the first and fifth quintiles of households (based on annual income per capita in increasing order) were also compared in the study.

RESULTS : We compared 2010 and 2012 as pre- and post-tax years to present immediate level changes. Annual expenditure on sweets decreased by 7.08%. This decline was greater among the first quintile (-15.36%), while a slight increase could be seen in the richest households (+2.75%). Level changes were not significant neither in the first (p=0.436), nor in the fifth quintile (p=0.376). Expenditure trends on sweets presented by poorer households showed a steeper decline in the pre-tax era. Although both income groups have increasing trends since 2012, spending of poorer households increased by a much smaller amount. Overall, significant trend changes were detected after the implementation of the tax, both in the first (p=0.002), and in the fifth quintile (p=0.01), due to the increasing amount of expenditures after 2011.

CONCLUSIONS : Expenditure on food groups affected by the public health product tax decreased only slightly after the tax was implemented and this tendency could not persist. Nevertheless, it can become a stable revenue source of the Hungarian Health Insurance Fund.