OBJECTIVES : This study aims to conduct sophisticated spatial analyses to examine the characteristics of health manpower distribution and test various determinants of health manpower densities.

METHODS : On the one hand, this study introduced spatial statistics (space-time scan statistics and Moran’s I statistics) to reveal, visualize and compare the temporal trends, spatio-temporal dynamics and spatial clustering patterns of different subtypes of health manpower (clinicians, traditional Chinese medicine doctors, dentists, public health doctors, general practitioners, registered nurses, pharmacists, technologists, interns) and their sum. On the other hand, the direct and spillover effects of all the determinants (health services demand, medical education capacity, government and social health expenditure) are empirically measured using spatial econometric panel models.

RESULTS : Results reveal that regional disparities and spatial clusters still exist in China’s health manpower distribution, with huge urban-rural imbalances being detected in the distribution of health manpower in China. Besides, spatial distribution characteristics vary across different subtypes of health manpower. Based on the estimation results, the health services demand is forcefully driving the health manpower distribution across the nation as expected. Just because of this, the health services demand increase in a province could significantly help one unit attract the licensed doctors and registered nurses from adjacent units. The power of medical education capacity is relatively limited in increasing the health manpower density in local units when compared to its spillover effects to neighboring units. While the government and social health expenditure play different roles in the health labor market, the former is more effective in increasing the stock of licensed doctors and registered nurses, while the latter does better in dentists and general practitioners.

CONCLUSIONS : By exploring both the characteristics and determinants, this study gives a full picture of health manpower distribution and provides new evidence for making subtype-specific and area-targeted health manpower allocation policies in China.