OBJECTIVES : The objective of this analysis is to estimate the number of patients considered as high risk for pneumococcal disease (PD) by the National Immunization Program (NIP) of Brazilian Ministry of Health.

METHODS : A retrospective analysis was performed based on Brazilian public health system database (DATASUS). It was included patients with ≥ 5 years old, who presented at least one of the 17 risk comorbidities for PDs, according to NIP of Brazilian Ministry of Health that were treated on Brazilian Public Healthcare System. This estimative considered the hospital admission, outpatient care or both data for each comorbidity group, tracked by the correspondent International Classification of Diseases code (ICD).

The analysis was carried out during the period from 2013 to 2018. For 2017, data was annualized when unavailable for the whole year. For 2018 and the following five years (2019 to 2023), a projection was made by trend analysis on the basis of a historical series from 2013 to 2017.

After estimating each comorbidity total population, the patients were stratified in two distinct risk grades groups.

RESULTS : In 2013 it was estimated 2.3 million patients with, at least, one of the high risk comorbidities for PD and in 2018, this number reached 2.8 million. The projection estimated that, in 2023, this population in Brazil would be 3.2 million. When stratified, the analysis showed that the number of patients considered as extremely serious risk for PD would be 884,839 and 335,317 for serious risk in 2023 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS : Once the results obtained from the present analysis estimates a significant population with high risk for PD in Brazil, and considering the generated impact by it, an improved and more effective vaccination schedule strategy can be structured for these populations.