OBJECTIVES: The NHS Elective Recovery Plan (ERP) was implemented in England in February 2022 to help reduce the number of patients waiting for elective care, which had increased substantially during the Covid-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the number of patients treated due to the ERP’s increase in capacity and quantify the wider societal benefit from increased economic productivity.

METHODS: We used Markov modelling to estimate NHS waiting lists from September 2022 - 2027 under three scenarios, which varied the effectiveness of the ERP. For each scenario, we calculated the total reduction in patient-years spent waiting for treatment relative to no increase in capacity. Using imputed patient characteristics, we applied the Wider Societal Benefits model developed by the Department of Health to estimate the increase in economic productivity.

RESULTS: If the 30% increase in treatment capacity by 2025 targeted by the ERP is achieved, we estimate a reduction of 16.8 million years of waiting time. Each year not spent on the waiting list is estimated to contribute an average of £4,920 in increased net production. The greatest gains over 2022-27 are estimated to be for patients aged 55-74 (£32bn).

We estimated £73bn of increased paid and unpaid production over 2022-27 and an additional £14bn in savings on formal and informal health care costs. If the increase in capacity observed is lower, the impact on production will reduce proportionally.

CONCLUSIONS: In addition to the direct benefit of improving patient welfare, successful implementation of the ERP could bring substantial indirect benefits to the wider economy as patients who are treated earlier return to work, take on more hours or carry out additional unpaid tasks such as housework and volunteering. Any costs of implementing the ERP (estimated at £16.6bn by the NHS) should be compared against the direct and indirect benefits of reducing patient waiting times.