How Uncertain Is Uncertainty Testing in Budget Impact Models?
Author(s)
Srivastava T1, Sharma J2
1ConnectHEOR, London, LON, UK, 2ConnectHEOR, London, UK
Presentation Documents
OBJECTIVES:
A budget impact model (BIM) estimates the financial impact on the payer due to introduction of an intervention in the market. Sensitivity analysis and scenario testing are often suggested by modelling guidelines to be included as part of BIMs to understand how variation in uncertain inputs and assumptions impact the model results. We conducted a targeted literature review to assess whether such uncertainty is tested in recent BIMs.METHODS:
Budget impact modelling studies published in Europe between Jan 2021 to June 2022 were identified using a search strategy in PubMed. Studies evaluating a drug were included, whereas studies evaluating diagnostics and vaccines were excluded. Studies reporting combined budget impact and cost-effectiveness analysis were also included, however, information was extracted only on the budget impact analysis. The review included title and abstract screening, followed by screening of full text. A data extraction template in MS-Excel was used to extract the relevant data.RESULTS:
The titles and abstracts were screened for 68 studies identified via search strategy, out of which 26 were selected for full-text screening. Based on the inclusion criteria, 17 studies were incorporated in the final analysis. Less than half of the BIMs (N=7) reported conducting a one-way sensitivity analysis and five of these presented results using a tornado diagram. Only two studies (out of 17) reported to conduct a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, however only one of them presented its results. Only ten studies included testing of different scenarios such as market share uptake, price and population changes.CONCLUSIONS:
Often many assumptions are made around inputs for BIMs and hence, sensitivity and scenario testing is crucial for decision making. However, only some of the recently published BIMs are including these checks, implying more attention needs to be given to uncertainty testing in the future BIMs.Conference/Value in Health Info
2022-11, ISPOR Europe 2022, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 25, Issue 12S (December 2022)
Code
MSR143
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Methodological & Statistical Research, Study Approaches
Topic Subcategory
Budget Impact Analysis, Literature Review & Synthesis
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, STA: Drugs