OBJECTIVES: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with substantial clinical and economic burden, with estimated annual US costs being over $50 billion in 2010 and European costs over €48 billion in 2011. However, cost estimates must be up-to-date and evaluated at individual country levels for decision-makers to enact policies and reduce COPD burden. This study estimated healthcare costs of United Kingdom (UK) patients with COPD using the COPD Health Outcome Policy and INtervention (CHOPIN) model.

METHODS: A dynamic population Markov model used published epidemiological and disease progression data to estimate costs by disease severity and category (exacerbations and routine management) from 2021 to 2040, taking into account COPD incidence and prevalence. Healthcare resource utilization due to COPD management and unit costs were obtained from National Health Service reference costs, the Personal Social Services Research Unit manual and the published literature. The model was validated against a previously published UK policy model.

RESULTS: The number of patients with COPD in the UK is projected to increase from 1.26 million in 2021 to 1.62 million in 2040, with overall COPD costs escalating from £2.0 to £2.6 billion, and cumulative total costs exceeding £46 billion over 20 years. Approximately 55% of costs are management-related; 45% are exacerbation-related (moderate exacerbations, 8%; severe exacerbations, 37%). Of the total cumulative costs, £10.3, £20.8, £7.8, and £5.3 billion were attributable to patients with mild, moderate, severe, and very severe COPD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall COPD costs are substantial and projected to increase annually. A large proportion of COPD costs are attributable to mild or moderate disease, highlighting the importance of early intervention. The CHOPIN model provides a framework for decision-makers to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of policies, such as earlier diagnosis, medication optimization or other interventions, that reduce the clinical and economic impact of COPD.