OBJECTIVES: The main goal of the study was to assess the consequences of introducing new recommendations in the HIV-infection treatment in the Russian Federation based on the previously developed model using data on the ratio of procurement of expensive HIV-drugs, their cost, and frequency of administration.

METHODS: The methodology included parameter changes for a previously developed mathematical model based on processing of patient database data (1,113 outpatient medical records of HIV-patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) based on the data from the AIDS Prevention and Control Center in 2011-2016) and analysis. Model parameters were formed after the evaluation of centralized procurement of HIV-drugs data.

RESULTS: The total number of annual courses of HIV-drugs planned for supply by the Ministry of Health in 2021 as a part of centralized procurement will be increased by 44,000 and amount to 476,000 annual courses. In 2021, 19,000 annual courses of RPV/TDF/FTC are planned, 15,800 courses of ESV, 102,702 courses of DTG; 19,992 courses of RAL, and 56,084 courses of ETR to provide the first and further ART lines for the HIV treatment. The proportion of expensive HIV-drugs will be at least 45%. In the process of modeling according to the planned scenarios of the drug supply cost the increasing trend by 87,265,239 rubles was observed.

CONCLUSIONS: The planned structure of the drug supply will lead to significant increase of the therapy cost for HIV-patients.