Effectiveness of Government Measures to Reduce COVID-19 Mortality across 5 Different Countries
Author(s)
Shah S*1;Ray B2;Holy C3;Sakthivel M1;Elangovanraaj N1;Krishnan D4;Gupta S5;Trivedi P1;Devulapally M1;Mohapatra A1, Coplan P6
1Mu Sigma, Bangalore, KA, India, 2Mu Sigma, Bangalore , India, 3Johnson & Johnson, Somerville, MA, USA, 4Mu Sigma, Bengaluru, KA, India, 5Mu Sigma, Bangalore, India, 6Johnson & Johnson, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
OBJECTIVES: As COVID-19 cases increased in early 2020, most governments imposed social distancing and mobility restrictions. This study was designed to determine associations between government actions and new cases of fatalities, and the differences between the effectiveness of these actions across five different countries.
METHODS: The World Health Organization daily situation reports (Feb 1 - June 30, 2020) were used to obtain counts of new fatalities, for 5 countries with testing rate > 50K per million inhabitants and with complete social distancing data (Australia, Belgium, Italy, United Kingdom, United States). Open-source mobility data from Apple and government action data (7 policies: school closure (SC), workplace closure (WC), public event cancellation (PEC), restriction on gatherings (RG), public transport closure (PTC), stay-at-home (SAH), internal movement restrictions (IMR)) from Oxford University were used as explanatory variables. Poisson regression models were built to evaluate the association between new cases and new fatalities, mobility, and government actions. A 6-week lag time was incorporated to evaluate the impact of actions taken 42-day prior on new cases of fatalities.
RESULTS: Across countries, there was little consistency in any of the associations. In Australia, the UK and the US, none of the government actions or mobility metrics were associated with new fatalities. In Belgium, WC and PEC were protective vs new fatalities (Incidence proportion ratio (IPR) for WC = 0.66 95%CI: 0.51-0.84; IPR for PEC = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.65-0.89). In Italy, PTC and SC were associated with lowering counts of fatalities (IPR for PTC =0.59, 95% CI = 0.48-0.75, IPR for SC = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.68-0.97).
CONCLUSIONS: Unprecedented government actions have been instituted to maintain the spread of COVID-19. We did not identify associations consistent across multiple countries between government measures and new cases of fatalities within 6 weeks of measure implementation.
METHODS: The World Health Organization daily situation reports (Feb 1 - June 30, 2020) were used to obtain counts of new fatalities, for 5 countries with testing rate > 50K per million inhabitants and with complete social distancing data (Australia, Belgium, Italy, United Kingdom, United States). Open-source mobility data from Apple and government action data (7 policies: school closure (SC), workplace closure (WC), public event cancellation (PEC), restriction on gatherings (RG), public transport closure (PTC), stay-at-home (SAH), internal movement restrictions (IMR)) from Oxford University were used as explanatory variables. Poisson regression models were built to evaluate the association between new cases and new fatalities, mobility, and government actions. A 6-week lag time was incorporated to evaluate the impact of actions taken 42-day prior on new cases of fatalities.
RESULTS: Across countries, there was little consistency in any of the associations. In Australia, the UK and the US, none of the government actions or mobility metrics were associated with new fatalities. In Belgium, WC and PEC were protective vs new fatalities (Incidence proportion ratio (IPR) for WC = 0.66 95%CI: 0.51-0.84; IPR for PEC = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.65-0.89). In Italy, PTC and SC were associated with lowering counts of fatalities (IPR for PTC =0.59, 95% CI = 0.48-0.75, IPR for SC = 0.81, 95%CI: 0.68-0.97).
CONCLUSIONS: Unprecedented government actions have been instituted to maintain the spread of COVID-19. We did not identify associations consistent across multiple countries between government measures and new cases of fatalities within 6 weeks of measure implementation.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2020-11, ISPOR Europe 2020, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Volume 23, Issue S2 (December 2020)
Code
CO3
Topic Subcategory
Prevalence, Incidence & Disease Risk Factors, Public Health
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)