OBJECTIVES: To i) assess costs, ii) recognize assistance intensification drivers; iii) profile functionality-aimed SIB individuals, and iv) estimate SIB’s possible capacity freed (PCF) impact.

METHODS: Functional capacity of the elderly SIB data from two Finnish regions (Ostrobothnia, South Savo) included 1,107 elderly people with different intensity of assisted living services. 2019 base year without discounting was applied. Dependent variables included time to service intensification (Cox exact regression) and the type of assisted living services (multinomial logistic regression). Counterfactual estimation was used for the impact assessment.

RESULTS: First, annual national costs were €11,734 for assisted home care; €28,905 for interval care; €37,889 for sheltered care; and €51,170 for intensified sheltered care. The respective co-payments in South Savo and Ostrobothnia without ceiling were €4,203 and €3,830; €8,829 and €8,081; €11,977 and €11,389; and €12,912 and €13,178. Second, limitations in household equipment (adjusted hazard rate 1.38), three or more mobility and health (2.66), social (1.68) or technological challenges (1.72) decreased, and Ostrobothnia (0.73) increased the time to service intensification during the average 3.5 years. Mobility and health challenges, and cognitive impairment were associated with the type of assisted living. Third, the potential SIB profile among the elderly with assisted living services was related to decrease in the impact of the household equipment, mobility, health, social, technological, or cognitive limitations. Fourth, given the set target levels of the elderly living at home in year 2025 (gradually to Ostrobothnia’s 96% and South Savo’s 94%), the respective cumulative PCF was estimated at €147 and €87 million. This would mean decreasing the sheltered care annually by 139 and 58 beds, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: We assessed the costs and found drivers for time and type of service intensification needed among the elderly and estimated the PCF. SIB-associated outcomes offer a knowledge management possibility for evidence-based predictive prevention and gains.