IMPACT of Meterological Variation on COVID-19 Disease Spread and Mortality.
Author(s)
ABSTRACT WITHDRAWN
OBJECTIVES : Many governments have adopted strict social distancing and stay-at-home orders to slow the spread of the coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) in early 2020. However, not all countries have experienced similar success. It is unknown whether meteorological conditions, such as temperature and precipitation rates, may have played a role in disease spread. METHODS: This is a retrospective data analysis using the Worldwide WHO situation reports along with population density information, government actions data from Oxford, mobility reports from Apple, population density from Worldometer and weather information from local weather forecasts for US and Italy counties (variables included: temperature (min/max), wind, dewpoint, visibility and precipitations) . Daily new positive cases and new fatalities for 5 US states (NY, GA, NJ, VA NM) and 19 Italian provinces from March to June 2020 were used as outcome variables in this analysis. Poisson regression models were developed to evaluate associations between new cases or deaths and all other variables in the model. A 2-week lag effect was introduced in fatality models to account for the time taken for new infections to result in fatalities. RESULTS: For US and Italian models, there was no association between temperature and new cases or new mortality. The incidence proportion ratio (IPR) for all weather variables varied from 0.98 to 1.01 across all models, except for precipitations: in the US, the IPR for new infection as a function of precipitation was 1.23 (95%CI: 1.20-1.27). This finding was reversed in the Italian model (IPR: 0.89 (95%CI: 0.86-0.92), suggesting potential confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Our study was confounded by the timing of the rise in COVID-19 cases in both the US and Italy, concurrent with a seasonal increase in temperatures. Despite this limitation, we did not identify any association between any of the meteorological variables and the spread or mortality of COVID-19.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2020-11, ISPOR Europe 2020, Milan, Italy
Value in Health, Volume 23, Issue S2 (December 2020)
Code
PIN98
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)