OBJECTIVES: The aim of the work was to develop a pharmacoeconomic model to assess the economic aspects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) based on the real-world epidemiological data.

METHODS: The methodology consisted of statistical processing of the epidemiological data of ART patients and the subsequent mathematical modeling. More than 1,113 outpatient histories of HIV patients receiving ART were analyzed at the Center for HIV/AIDS Prevention and Control for 2011-2016. The following indicators were evaluated: age, gender, disease duration, pharmacotherapy throughout the observation period, the number of ART regimens changes and their causes, the treatment regimen cost. Modeling involved the automation of ART regime cost calculations, assessing the consequences of frequent changes in treatment and the additional costs associated with a particular drug use, and the economic role of genotyping.

RESULTS: According to the database analysis, 57% of men and 43% of women received ART during the estimated period; age distribution was the following: <24 years - 5%, 24 - 49 years - 84%, > 49 years - 11%. The following transmission methods were recorded: heterosexual (53%), injection (38%), homosexual (4%), vertical (5%). It showed that the average number of changes in treatment regimen per year was 1.8, with a maximum value of up to 13. The main reasons for changing the treatment regimen were therapy inefficiency (58%), drug availability (32%), and adverse reactions (9%). In the course of mathematical modeling, the treatment regimen costs, the economic consequences of changing treatment regimens, and the role of genotyping in ART were demonstrated. The HIV socioeconomic burden was determined using an upward approach.

CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and economic modeling based on epidemiological data is as an important tool in predicting the cost of providing antiretroviral drugs and assessing the role of additional research in monitoring HIV patients, which helps to identify the most resource-saving approaches for clinical practice.