OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the situation in 2018, estimates the future burden of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic strokes (IS), and extrapolates the resulting social (economic) impact until 2030.

METHODS: The number of events, direct and indirect costs of MI and IS in Germany were identified via a literature search. The direct costs include treatment costs, the indirect costs are calculated as loss of gross value added. We start our projections from 2018; yearly incidence of MI and IS observed between 2008 and 2017 was extrapolated until 2030 using a linear model, based on Microsoft Excel. German data were used for base scenario, data from Austria and Switzerland were used for sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS: In the base case scenario the total number of cardiovascular events will rise from 478,000 in 2018 to 534,000 in 2030 whilst the number of deaths is assumed to decrease for the same period from 72,000 to 47,000. Sensitivity analyses predict the number of cardiovascular events in 2030 to lie between 390,000 and 593,000. Direct costs in the base scenario are expected to rise from €9.0 billion in 2018 up to €11.8 billion in 2030 and indirect costs from €7.9 billion up to €9.8 billion bringing the total social impact from €16.9 billion in 2018 to €21.5 billion in 2030. In the sensitivity analyses the total social impact in the low scenario is expected to rise from €16.3 billion in 2018 up to €18.2 billion in 2030 and in the high scenario from €17.9 billion in 2018 up to €31.3 billion 2030.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the substantial economic impact of MI and IS on the society is likely to increase further by 2030. Measures proven to prevent cardiovascular events (e.g.: adequate control of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol) may help decrease future disease and financial burden.