OBJECTIVES : To estimate the disease burden of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) under the current treatment pattern in China.

METHODS : A decision-analytic model was constructed to simulate the Chinese patients with AML and the age and gender-matched Chinese general population over lifetime for the differences in overall survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lifetime direct medical costs. A literature search was conducted to identify appropriate evidence to estimate the model variables. Base case analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted for the point estimations and uncertainty of the disease burden of AML.

RESULTS : The Chinese AML patients (mean age: ; male proportion: ) were associated with reduced average overall survival by 18.161 years (5.774 years vs. 23.934 years), reduced average QALY by 16.822 QALY (4.735 QALY vs. 21.557 QALY), and increased average life-time direct medical costs by ¥259,408 (¥396,477 vs. ¥137,069). The reduced QALY associated with AML was sensitive to patient age (change: 4.047 QALY) and the risk of disease recurrence after consolidation treatment (change: -1.442 QALY) and maintenance treatment (change: -0.925 QALY). The increased lifetime medical costs associated with AML were sensitive to risk of recurrence associated with maintenance treatment (change: ¥-94,653), the proportion of induction therapy in the first-line treatment of non-promyelocytic leukemia patients (change: ¥63,518), risk of recurrence in patients with non-promyelocytic leukemia after consolidation treatment (change: ¥-53,659). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations estimated the median and 95% credible interval of reduced QALY (-16.624 QALY, -18.762 to -14.595 QALY) and increased lifetime direct medical costs ( ¥259,652, ¥184,074 to ¥342,499).

CONCLUSIONS : The disease burden of AML in Chinese patients was characterized by reduced overall survival, reduced QALY, and increased medical costs. The uncertainty associated with patient age and treatment outcomes could substantially impact the disease burden of AML in China.