OBJECTIVES

This study sought to explore why new drugs are launched more frequently in some countries versus others and to identify metrics that best predict countries with high number of drug launches.

METHODS

The number of new chemical entities (NCEs) launched globally in 2019 according to PharmaProjects was selected as the outcome variable. Nine potential predictor metrics spanning economic, demographic and political factors were identified from WorldBank and government sources. Analyzed countries were ranked according to each predictor metric and the outcome variable; correlation between variables was determined by Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient ρ. Random search optimization was performed to identify the set of predictor metric weightings producing a weighted rank that best correlates with the ranking by outcome variable.

RESULTS

Of the 66 countries with complete data and non-zero NCE launches included for analysis, the US had the greatest number of NCE launches in 2019, followed by the UK and France. Of the six mutually exclusive predictor metrics prioritized for analysis (healthcare spending per capita, GDP per capita, proportion of out-of-pocket spending, population, corruption index and physician density), four independently demonstrated fair positive rank correlation to the outcome variable: healthcare spend per capita (ρ = 0.695), GDP per capita (ρ = 0.621), corruption index (ρ = 0.574) and physician density (ρ = 0.558). The set of predictor metric weights to optimize correlation with the outcome variable was 41% healthcare spending per capita, 29% population, 16% physician density, 11% proportion of out-of-pocket spending, 2% corruption index and 1% GDP per capita (ρ = 0.809). Compared to this optimized model, fewer actual drugs were launched in Japan than would be predicted, while China, South Korea and Thailand were in line with predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

National total healthcare spending appears to be the best predictor of the number of new drug launches.