OBJECTIVES: The U.S. has witnessed increased opioid overdose deaths. Overprescriptions are a major contributor to this complex issue. This study aims to project the prevalence of opioid drug prescriptions and associated costs from 2025 to 2050 to provide insights to stakeholders and inform health policy makers.

METHODS: Population characteristics and prescribed medicines data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 2017 to 2021 were utilized to delineate the prevailing trend in opioid drug prescriptions and associated costs per person. Data cleaning and consolidation processes were executed using Stata®. Subsequently, a model was constructed in Excel® to forecast the prevalence of opioid drug prescriptions and associated costs for the U.S. population. The projected population using opioid drugs from 2025 to 2050 was determined by applying the projected prevalence of opioid use to the anticipated population data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. The estimated total costs for opioid prescriptions were calculated based on the average cost per person for opioid prescriptions.

RESULTS: Based on the observed downward trend in the prevalence of opioid drug prescriptions between 2017 to 2021, the model projected the prevalence will decrease from 6.59% in 2021 to 1.70% in 2050. The associated annual costs for opioid drug prescriptions are estimated to be $15,480 million in 2021 and projected to amount to $69,942 million by the year 2050.

CONCLUSIONS: Continued efforts to control opioid drug prescriptions could lead to a substantial reduction in their prevalence and associated costs, potentially reducing deaths resulting from overdoses of prescribed opioid drugs.