OBJECTIVES: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, affecting over 840 million worldwide. Switzerland’s prevalence is 10.9%, impacting one in four over-60-year-olds. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) constitutes a significant proportion of CKD-related healthcare costs, despite utilization by only 1% of Switzerland’s CKD population. Anticipated increases in CKD patient numbers necessitate strategic healthcare planning. To inform public health strategies, this IMPACT-CKD study aims to project clinical, economic, societal and environmental burdens of CKD in Switzerland.

METHODS: The IMPACT-CKD patient-level simulation model was utilized to project CKD-progression and outcomes in the Swiss population over a 10-year horizon. Individuals were assigned CKD-relevant characteristics – including kidney function measures, metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities and events – based on real-world data (national statistics, registries and databases). Patients progressed through the disease, diagnosed or undiagnosed, following categorisation into non-CKD or one of six CKD stages. Inputs and results were validated and calibrated extensively via published literature, real-world evidence and expert consultations.

RESULTS: Between 2022 and 2032, IMPACT-CKD projects, among others, Switzerland’s cases of CKD to rise by 6.7% (from 0.96m to 1.03m). Prevalent counts for Stages 3 to 5 and RRT will surge by 18.1% (from 437k to 516k) and 57.2% (from 8.4k to 13.2k) respectively. CKD-related healthcare costs (including RRT) will increase by 27.6% (from CHF 3.3b to CHF 4.2b) to 4.6% of Swiss healthcare spending in 2032. RRT-associated costs will rise by 77.3% (from CHF 424m to CHF 752m). Over 10 years, CKD will incur CHF 12.9b in lost productivity, 42.8m missed workdays and CHF 606m in lost tax revenue. CKD's carbon footprint will increase by 13% (from 230m to 259m kg CO₂ equivalents).

CONCLUSIONS: IMPACT-CKD projects major increases in the clinical, economic, societal and environmental burdens of CKD on Switzerland. Comprehensive health policies and strategic planning are needed urgently to mitigate impact.