Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cancer Screenings in Portugal and Years of Life Lost Due to Delayed Diagnoses
Author(s)
Mendes D1, Figueiredo D2, Alves C3, Penedones A3, Costa B4, Batel Marques F3
1University of Coimbra, Porto Salvo, 11, Portugal, 2University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal, 3University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal, 4Clevidence, Porto Salvo, Lisboa, Portugal
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer screening programs carried out by the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS), and to estimate the consequences on cancer morbidity and mortality.
METHODS: T
he pre-pandemic and pandemic periods were compared using publicly available data on performance and health outcomes indicators of the Portuguese NHS, namely the numbers and proportions of eligible individuals who underwent cancer screening (breast, cervical or colorectal). Pre-pandemic data were modelled to project hypothetical scenarios without a pandemic using an exponential smoothing algorithm, and then compared with data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. A Markov model was developed to estimate years of life lost (YLL) due the reduction in the number of cancer screenings during the pandemic. The MS Excel and the PRISM symbolic model checker software were used.RESULTS: There was
a decrease in the number of breast cancer (13%), cervical cancer (15%) and colorectal cancer (9% to 11%) screenings during the first two years of the pandemic. Average losses of 11 months, 6 months, and 4 months of life per patient with breast, colorectal and cervical cancer, respectively, were estimated. Additional 695 deaths and 3789 patients undiagnosed cancers were estimated in a 25-year time horizon, in comparison to the number predicted in a scenario without the pandemic.CONCLUSIONS: This study quantified the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Portuguese NHS activity. The disruption in the cancer screening programs
may contribute to increase cancer morbidity and mortality, with significant loss of years of life. The long-term implications of the impaired cancer screening should be assessed, and proactive measures put in place to restore cancer screening levels and mitigate cancer morbidity and mortality indirectly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic.Conference/Value in Health Info
Value in Health, Volume 26, Issue 11, S2 (December 2023)
Acceptance Code
P10
Disease
no-additional-disease-conditions-specialized-treatment-areas, Oncology