OBJECTIVES : To project incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related health economic outcomes in Australia by socioeconomic status between 2020 and 2029.

METHODS : A dynamic population model was built to project the annual incidence new-onset CVD by quintile of socioeconomic disadvantage in Australians aged 40-90 years between 2020 and 2029 using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE). The model projected years of life lived, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), direct healthcare medical costs, and productivity losses due to new-onset CVD. All outcomes were discounted by 5% annually.

RESULTS : Cardiovascular risk profiling using the PCE showed that 20% of the most disadvantaged quintile were considered at high risk of CVD, compared to 12% in the least disadvantaged quintile. From 2020 to 2029, the model projected 211,901 incident cardiovascular events would occur in the most disadvantaged quintile compared to 184,846 in the least disadvantaged. Acute healthcare costs in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged group were AU$ 206 million higher than in the least disadvantaged group, while the difference in societal costs was AU$ 820 million. Scenario analyses estimated that a 17% risk reduction in CVD would be needed in disadvantage quintiles 1-4 to achieve the same outcomes as the least disadvantaged quintile (quintile 5).

CONCLUSIONS : The number of CV events and associated costs highlight the urgent need to implement scalable primary prevention interventions targeted at disadvantaged groups. This model provides a platform to assess which interventions are likely to yield more benefits in each socioeconomic group at the population level.