THE ANNUAL SOCIETAL VALUE OF CONTINUOUS VACCINATION INVESTMENT: A BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS OF ADULT IMMUNISATION PROGRAMS IN GERMANY
Author(s)
Angus Macfarlane, MSc1, Ellie Tunnicliffe, MSc1, Matthew Napier, MSc1, Grainne Cremin, MSc1, Simon Brassel, BSc, MSc1, Maria Waize, MASc, MSc2, Lotte Steuten, MSc, PhD1.
1Office of Health Economics, London, United Kingdom, 2GSK, Munich, Germany.
1Office of Health Economics, London, United Kingdom, 2GSK, Munich, Germany.
OBJECTIVES: Influenza, COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and herpes zoster (HZ) impose a substantial disease burden in Germany, for which publicly funded adult vaccination programmes exist. These programmes offer relief through a combination of respiratory vaccines (influenza, RSV and COVID-19) and non-respiratory vaccine (HZ). To capture all realised benefits in a given year, this study estimates the annual societal value of sustained investment in vaccination at steady state.
METHODS: Four static, open-cohort life-table models estimate the costs and benefits of national vaccination programmes against influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and HZ. Benefits were monetised across three domains using an established framework: mortality risk reduction, valued using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL); morbidity risk reduction, using a cost-of-illness approach for influenza, COVID-19, and RSV, and monetised QALYs for HZ; and productivity losses for both patients and carers. German STIKO recommendations were modelled by aggregating costs and benefits across all programmes against a no-vaccination comparator. Benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) and net monetary benefits (NMBs) are reported at steady state, defined at the point at which annual costs and benefits stabilise. We assumed steady state is reached at 15 years and accounts for protection from the seasonal and long-term programs, including residual protection accruing from prior vaccination years. Scenario analyses examined the impact of increased coverage rates.
RESULTS: Preliminary aggregated results for influenza, RSV, and HZ vaccinations indicate that at steady state, NMBs of about €7 billion are generated annually corresponding to an annual BCR of 5.73. Raising coverage to aspirational levels (75%) across all programs would increase NMBs by 140%.
CONCLUSIONS: Adult vaccination programmes in Germany deliver substantial societal value. Our analysis demonstrates that sustained investment generates consistently positive annual societal returns once steady state is reached, complementing prior research on the lifetime societal gains. With coverage below recommended targets, increasing uptake would yield further societal returns.
METHODS: Four static, open-cohort life-table models estimate the costs and benefits of national vaccination programmes against influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and HZ. Benefits were monetised across three domains using an established framework: mortality risk reduction, valued using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL); morbidity risk reduction, using a cost-of-illness approach for influenza, COVID-19, and RSV, and monetised QALYs for HZ; and productivity losses for both patients and carers. German STIKO recommendations were modelled by aggregating costs and benefits across all programmes against a no-vaccination comparator. Benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) and net monetary benefits (NMBs) are reported at steady state, defined at the point at which annual costs and benefits stabilise. We assumed steady state is reached at 15 years and accounts for protection from the seasonal and long-term programs, including residual protection accruing from prior vaccination years. Scenario analyses examined the impact of increased coverage rates.
RESULTS: Preliminary aggregated results for influenza, RSV, and HZ vaccinations indicate that at steady state, NMBs of about €7 billion are generated annually corresponding to an annual BCR of 5.73. Raising coverage to aspirational levels (75%) across all programs would increase NMBs by 140%.
CONCLUSIONS: Adult vaccination programmes in Germany deliver substantial societal value. Our analysis demonstrates that sustained investment generates consistently positive annual societal returns once steady state is reached, complementing prior research on the lifetime societal gains. With coverage below recommended targets, increasing uptake would yield further societal returns.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE754
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Epidemiology & Public Health, Study Approaches
Disease
Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory), Vaccines