QUANTIFYING THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL IMPACT OF ENSITRELVIR USE IN A COVID-19 PANDEMIC: AN ANALYSIS IN ITALY
Author(s)
Floortje Van Nooten, PhD1, Matteo Scortichini, PhD2, Paolo Sciattella, MSc, PhD2.
1Shionogi B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2Economic Evaluation and HTA (EEHTA CEIS), Department of Economics and Finance, Faculty ofEconomics,, Rome, Italy.
1Shionogi B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2Economic Evaluation and HTA (EEHTA CEIS), Department of Economics and Finance, Faculty ofEconomics,, Rome, Italy.
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantify the potential impact of antiviral post‑exposure prophylaxis (PEP) on the trajectory of COVID‑19 epidemic during the first pandemic wave in 2020.
METHODS: Daily incident SARS‑CoV‑2 cases in Lombardy (ISTAT) were used to reconstruct the epidemic trajectory via a mathematical model. The model should characterise transmission dynamics and assess PEP-driven transmission reduction scenarios. The antiviral effect was informed by ensitrelvir data from SCORPIO-PEP study, assuming 67% transmission reduction. Reductions in hospitalisations, and deaths were estimated by applying clinical transition probabilities observed during first epidemic wave.
RESULTS: ISTAT (First Results of the SARS‑CoV‑2 Seroprevalence Survey) indicate that approximately 95,000 confirmed cases were identified in Lombardy between March and July 2020, while serological evidence suggested that more than 750,000 individuals had developed antibodies to SARS‑CoV‑2. The analyses estimated 90,198 cumulative cases at 100 days, reflecting observed trend. Incorporation of PEP reduced cases to 18,514 cases (95% CI: 6,897-27,947). PEP was associated with attenuation of epidemic growth, alongside reductions in hospitalisations, and deaths under full coverage.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite important methodological and contextual limitations, this analysis supports the hypothesis that timely antiviral PEP could contribute to earlier containment of transmission in future pandemics, warranting further dedicated research.
METHODS: Daily incident SARS‑CoV‑2 cases in Lombardy (ISTAT) were used to reconstruct the epidemic trajectory via a mathematical model. The model should characterise transmission dynamics and assess PEP-driven transmission reduction scenarios. The antiviral effect was informed by ensitrelvir data from SCORPIO-PEP study, assuming 67% transmission reduction. Reductions in hospitalisations, and deaths were estimated by applying clinical transition probabilities observed during first epidemic wave.
RESULTS: ISTAT (First Results of the SARS‑CoV‑2 Seroprevalence Survey) indicate that approximately 95,000 confirmed cases were identified in Lombardy between March and July 2020, while serological evidence suggested that more than 750,000 individuals had developed antibodies to SARS‑CoV‑2. The analyses estimated 90,198 cumulative cases at 100 days, reflecting observed trend. Incorporation of PEP reduced cases to 18,514 cases (95% CI: 6,897-27,947). PEP was associated with attenuation of epidemic growth, alongside reductions in hospitalisations, and deaths under full coverage.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite important methodological and contextual limitations, this analysis supports the hypothesis that timely antiviral PEP could contribute to earlier containment of transmission in future pandemics, warranting further dedicated research.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH221
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine)