PROJECTED WIDER SOCIETAL AND FISCAL IMPACT OF SEMAGLUTIDE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
Author(s)
Marina Berger, BSc, MSc1, Benjamin Bray, PhD, MD1, Elisabeth de Laguiche, BSc, MSc2, Oliver Walker, PhD3, Joseph Whitaker, BSc, MSc3, Robert King, BSc, MSc1.
1Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, United Kingdom, 2Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3Novo Nordisk Ltd, Gatwick, United Kingdom.
1Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, United Kingdom, 2Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3Novo Nordisk Ltd, Gatwick, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: Pharmacological therapies can generate societal value across multiple indications, yet this broader value can be difficult to capture using conventional value assessments, which typically focus on individual-level impacts within a single indication and adopt a healthcare perspective. To address this limitation, a multi-indication model was developed to estimate the wider societal and fiscal impacts of semaglutide in the UK assuming theoretical maximal uptake.
METHODS: A UK population-level analysis estimated the 5-year (2026-2030) impacts of semaglutide among individuals with obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, and/or chronic kidney disease. Baseline prevalence, population overlap between conditions and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) unit costs were derived from published literature. Treatment effects versus placebo/standard care were derived from clinical trials and translated into reductions in events and quality of life (QoL) improvements to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Productivity impacts were estimated using a UK health-related QoL-driven model. Fiscal outcomes included the tax wedge from paid productivity gains. Costs were discounted at 3.5% annually. Estimated treatment costs, using list prices, were compared with total economic impacts.
RESULTS: Among the estimated 7 million individuals eligible for treatment with semaglutide annually over 5 years, the use of semaglutide was projected to prevent 233,757 hospitalisations and 2,270,103 bed days over 2026-2030, reducing net HCRU costs by £18.1 billion. Treatment was forecast to generate productivity gains of £38.9 billion (equivalent to £1,177 per treated person per year), with an associated tax wedge of £2.2 billion. Cumulative QALY gains over 5 years were 1,403,157. Combined net HCRU cost savings and productivity gains amounted to £57.0 billion and were projected to more than offset the £45.6 billion in semaglutide (1.0mg, 2.4mg) treatment costs at list prices, yielding a net societal benefit of £11.4 billion.
CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with semaglutide is projected to generate broad clinical, societal and economic benefits across multiple comorbidities.
METHODS: A UK population-level analysis estimated the 5-year (2026-2030) impacts of semaglutide among individuals with obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, and/or chronic kidney disease. Baseline prevalence, population overlap between conditions and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) unit costs were derived from published literature. Treatment effects versus placebo/standard care were derived from clinical trials and translated into reductions in events and quality of life (QoL) improvements to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Productivity impacts were estimated using a UK health-related QoL-driven model. Fiscal outcomes included the tax wedge from paid productivity gains. Costs were discounted at 3.5% annually. Estimated treatment costs, using list prices, were compared with total economic impacts.
RESULTS: Among the estimated 7 million individuals eligible for treatment with semaglutide annually over 5 years, the use of semaglutide was projected to prevent 233,757 hospitalisations and 2,270,103 bed days over 2026-2030, reducing net HCRU costs by £18.1 billion. Treatment was forecast to generate productivity gains of £38.9 billion (equivalent to £1,177 per treated person per year), with an associated tax wedge of £2.2 billion. Cumulative QALY gains over 5 years were 1,403,157. Combined net HCRU cost savings and productivity gains amounted to £57.0 billion and were projected to more than offset the £45.6 billion in semaglutide (1.0mg, 2.4mg) treatment costs at list prices, yielding a net societal benefit of £11.4 billion.
CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with semaglutide is projected to generate broad clinical, societal and economic benefits across multiple comorbidities.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE636
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies, Novel & Social Elements of Value, Work & Home Productivity - Indirect Costs
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Urinary/Kidney Disorders