PROJECTED SURVIVAL TO POPULATION AVERAGE LIFE EXPECTANCY WITH PEMBROLIZUMAB IN EARLY-STAGE CANCER IN GREECE: A MODELING STUDY
Author(s)
Nikolaos T. Yfantopoulos, MSc1, ANASTASIOS SKROUMPELOS, PhD2, Antonis Karokis, MSc2.
1Value and Patient Access Manager, MSD, Athens, Greece, 2MSD, Athens, Greece.
1Value and Patient Access Manager, MSD, Athens, Greece, 2MSD, Athens, Greece.
OBJECTIVES: The burden of cancer in Greece is expected to rise substantially, with the incidence and mortality projected to increase by 16.5% and 23.7%, respectively, by 2045. These findings highlight the need for interventions that improve survival and quality of life of cancer patients in Greece. Early-stage treatment with pembrolizumab has demonstrated improvements in overall survival and recurrence-free survival, suggesting its potential to reduce premature cancer mortality. Aim of this study is to complement the findings of our previous analysis1 by incorporating the impact of early-stage treatment in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), head and neck carcinoma (H&N), and stage III melanoma.
METHODS: Three early-stage Markov models were developed to estimate the number of patients expected to reach the average life expectancy (aLE) of the general Greek population (81.8 years) with pembrolizumab, compared with the previous standard of care. The analysis was based on the EMA-approved labels of KEYNOTE-905 in MIBC, KEYNOTE-689 in H&N carcinoma , and KEYNOTE-054 in melanoma . Efficacy inputs were derived from the clinical trials, and parametric extrapolations were validated by experts. All models were evaluated over a lifetime horizon.
RESULTS: Among patients with MIBC, 42.08% of patients who received perioperative pembrolizumab combination were projected to reach aLE versus 13.87% of patients treated with the previous SoC . In H&N cancers, 27.39% of patients receiving perioperative pembrolizumab and adjuvant combination therapy were expected to reach aLE compared to 19.42% of those treated with the previous standard of care-adjuvant radiotherapy. Similarly, in melanoma, 16.18% of patients who received pembrolizumab were estimated to reach aLE compared to 4.01% of patients with routine surveillance.
CONCLUSIONS: Early-stage pembrolizumab has the potential to enhance long-term survival outcomes and increase the number of patients reaching average life expectancy in Greece. This improvement not only reflects clinical progress but also signals broader societal value through reduced premature mortality.
METHODS: Three early-stage Markov models were developed to estimate the number of patients expected to reach the average life expectancy (aLE) of the general Greek population (81.8 years) with pembrolizumab, compared with the previous standard of care. The analysis was based on the EMA-approved labels of KEYNOTE-905 in MIBC, KEYNOTE-689 in H&N carcinoma , and KEYNOTE-054 in melanoma . Efficacy inputs were derived from the clinical trials, and parametric extrapolations were validated by experts. All models were evaluated over a lifetime horizon.
RESULTS: Among patients with MIBC, 42.08% of patients who received perioperative pembrolizumab combination were projected to reach aLE versus 13.87% of patients treated with the previous SoC . In H&N cancers, 27.39% of patients receiving perioperative pembrolizumab and adjuvant combination therapy were expected to reach aLE compared to 19.42% of those treated with the previous standard of care-adjuvant radiotherapy. Similarly, in melanoma, 16.18% of patients who received pembrolizumab were estimated to reach aLE compared to 4.01% of patients with routine surveillance.
CONCLUSIONS: Early-stage pembrolizumab has the potential to enhance long-term survival outcomes and increase the number of patients reaching average life expectancy in Greece. This improvement not only reflects clinical progress but also signals broader societal value through reduced premature mortality.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
CO210
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Comparative Effectiveness or Efficacy
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, Oncology