GLOBAL HETEROGENEITIES OF TRUST IN SCIENCE, SOCIAL CONSENSUS, AND VACCINE ACCEPTANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE WELLCOME GLOBAL MONITOR DATA
Author(s)
Taoran Liu, PhD1, YANGYANG GAO, PhD2, XINYANG MA, BSc, MPH, PhD1, Wai-kit Ming, MBA, MPH, PhD, MD3.
1Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 2Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, City University of Hong Kong, HONG KONG, Hong Kong, 3Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, City University of Hong Kong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
1Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 2Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, City University of Hong Kong, HONG KONG, Hong Kong, 3Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, City University of Hong Kong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
OBJECTIVES: Trust in science is widely discussed as associated with vaccine acceptance. Yet little evidence shows the heterogeneity of trust in science and the strength of trust across different regions worldwide. This study aims to investigate the associations among trust in science, social consensus, and vaccine acceptance, and to discuss the regional heterogeneity of trust in science.
METHODS: We examined individual-level trust in science and country-level social consensus on science, using the 2020 Wellcome Global Monitor second wave data (from October 2020 to February 2021). We constructed a five-item trust-in-science scale and quantified social consensus as the within-country standard deviation of trust, adjusted for compositional and macroeconomic differences. We applied a two-step approximation to a location-scale model to examine correlates of both average trust and trust dispersion, then we performed logistic regression analyses of vaccine acceptance, including both individual- and country-level trust. We also conducted regional subgroup analyses to investigate the regional heterogeneity in trust in science.
RESULTS: After data cleansing, a total of 99,551 respondents from 102 countries were included in the study. We found a strong positive correlation between higher individual trust in science and higher vaccine acceptance (b=0.38, 95% CI: 0.323, 0.437, p < 0.001). Also, countries with higher level of average trust are also positively associated with higher vaccine acceptance (b=0.185, 95% CI: 1.299, 0.437, p < 0.05). The moderate effect of trust consensus was relatively weak (b=-0.262, 95% CI: -0.536, 0.012, p=0.061). The subgroup analyses revealed that there was a strongest correlation between individual-level trust in science and vaccine acceptance in the US and European countries.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that during the COVID-19 pandemic, trust in science remained a key correlate of vaccine acceptance, but the role of societal consensus around scientific trust may be more context-dependent than in the pre-pandemic period.
METHODS: We examined individual-level trust in science and country-level social consensus on science, using the 2020 Wellcome Global Monitor second wave data (from October 2020 to February 2021). We constructed a five-item trust-in-science scale and quantified social consensus as the within-country standard deviation of trust, adjusted for compositional and macroeconomic differences. We applied a two-step approximation to a location-scale model to examine correlates of both average trust and trust dispersion, then we performed logistic regression analyses of vaccine acceptance, including both individual- and country-level trust. We also conducted regional subgroup analyses to investigate the regional heterogeneity in trust in science.
RESULTS: After data cleansing, a total of 99,551 respondents from 102 countries were included in the study. We found a strong positive correlation between higher individual trust in science and higher vaccine acceptance (b=0.38, 95% CI: 0.323, 0.437, p < 0.001). Also, countries with higher level of average trust are also positively associated with higher vaccine acceptance (b=0.185, 95% CI: 1.299, 0.437, p < 0.05). The moderate effect of trust consensus was relatively weak (b=-0.262, 95% CI: -0.536, 0.012, p=0.061). The subgroup analyses revealed that there was a strongest correlation between individual-level trust in science and vaccine acceptance in the US and European countries.
CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that during the COVID-19 pandemic, trust in science remained a key correlate of vaccine acceptance, but the role of societal consensus around scientific trust may be more context-dependent than in the pre-pandemic period.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH262
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Infectious Disease (non-vaccine), Vaccines