FORECASTING THE FUTURE BURDEN OF CELIAC DISEASE IN HUNGARY: A POPULATION-BASED EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS, 2012-2034
Author(s)
Laura Horváth, -1, Tímea Csákvári, MSc, PhD1, Krisztina Palkovics, MSc1, Imre Boncz, MSc, PhD, MD2, Zsuzsanna Kívés, MSc, PhD2, Luca Kovács, MSc2, István Ágoston, JD, PhD2, Diána Elmer, MSc, PhD2.
1Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Zalaegerszeg, Hungary, 2Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Pécs, Hungary.
1Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Zalaegerszeg, Hungary, 2Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Pécs, Hungary.
OBJECTIVES: Celiac disease is a chronic immune-mediated disorder with increasing public health relevance. The aim of this study was to evaluate epidemiological trends of celiac disease in Hungary and forecast future disease burden. Given the rising global prevalence and improved diagnostic awareness reported in recent literature, understanding national trends is essential for timely healthcare system adaptation.
METHODS: Data were obtained from the nationwide PULVITA outpatient healthcare database. Cases of celiac disease were identified using ICD-10 codes K9000-K9009. Annual case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population were analyzed. Temporal trends were assessed using linear regression models adjusted for the COVID-19 pandemic period. Forecasts were generated using linear trend extrapolation with 95% prediction intervals and validated using ETS time-series analysis.
RESULTS: The number of outpatient cases related to celiac disease increased from 38,673 to 49,459 between 2012 and 2024 (+28.0%). Incidence rates increased from 6.6 to 7.4 per 100,000 population. Trend analyses demonstrated a continuous upward pattern. Forecast models indicate a further increase in diagnosed cases and healthcare utilization over the next decade. Regression modelling explained approximately 51.6% of incidence variability (R² = 0.516; p = 0.027). The COVID-19 period was associated with a significant temporary reduction in diagnosed cases (B = −82.27; 95% CI: −142.06 to −22.47; p = 0.012).
CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological burden of celiac disease is expected to continue increasing in Hungary. These findings may support future healthcare planning and health policy decision-making. Moreover, the projected increase underscores the need for enhanced screening strategies and resource allocation in line with international recommendations.
METHODS: Data were obtained from the nationwide PULVITA outpatient healthcare database. Cases of celiac disease were identified using ICD-10 codes K9000-K9009. Annual case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population were analyzed. Temporal trends were assessed using linear regression models adjusted for the COVID-19 pandemic period. Forecasts were generated using linear trend extrapolation with 95% prediction intervals and validated using ETS time-series analysis.
RESULTS: The number of outpatient cases related to celiac disease increased from 38,673 to 49,459 between 2012 and 2024 (+28.0%). Incidence rates increased from 6.6 to 7.4 per 100,000 population. Trend analyses demonstrated a continuous upward pattern. Forecast models indicate a further increase in diagnosed cases and healthcare utilization over the next decade. Regression modelling explained approximately 51.6% of incidence variability (R² = 0.516; p = 0.027). The COVID-19 period was associated with a significant temporary reduction in diagnosed cases (B = −82.27; 95% CI: −142.06 to −22.47; p = 0.012).
CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological burden of celiac disease is expected to continue increasing in Hungary. These findings may support future healthcare planning and health policy decision-making. Moreover, the projected increase underscores the need for enhanced screening strategies and resource allocation in line with international recommendations.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH220
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Gastrointestinal Disorders