ESTIMATING THE FISCAL COST OF STROKE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
Author(s)
Grace Mountain, BA, MSc1, Robert King, BSc, MSc1, Deborah Bryony Lowe, MD2, Maeva MAY, Other2, Catherine Goodall, BA, Msc2, Catrin Treharne, BSc, MSc1, Benjamin Bray, PhD, MD1.
1LCP Health, London, United Kingdom, 2Stroke Association, London, United Kingdom.
1LCP Health, London, United Kingdom, 2Stroke Association, London, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: Stroke imposes substantial health and economic burden, yet evidence on its fiscal consequences for government budgets remains limited. This study aimed to estimate the current and projected fiscal cost of stroke in the UK, disaggregated by age group and country.
METHODS: Stroke prevalence estimates were sourced from published literature and stratified into working age (16-64 years) and pension age (≥65 years) populations. Stroke severity was proxied using modified Rankin Scale (mRS), with patients with mRS scores of 4 and 5 assumed unable to work and requiring welfare. The analysis was projected annually to 2035 in real terms. For the working age population, annual per-person fiscal costs of being out of work reflected an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimate. The estimate includes lost income tax and national insurance contributions, incapacity and disability benefits. The estimated OBR cost was weighted to reflect a lower-than-assumed number of individuals being out of work and claiming benefits. For those of pension age, annual fiscal costs were based on attendance allowance payments and reflected a 50% uptake rate.
RESULTS: In 2025, stroke was estimated to be associated with a fiscal cost of approximately £1.6 billion in the UK, driven primarily by working age stroke survivors. Among the working age population, total costs were estimated at £739 million. For the pension age population, total welfare costs were estimated at £596 million.England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland accounted for 81%, 11%, 5% and 3% of costs in 2025, respectively. Projections indicated that total fiscal costs for working age stroke survivors will increase to £1.7 billion by 2035, while pension age costs are projected to rise to approximately £1.1 billion by 2035, totalling £2.8 billion.
CONCLUSIONS: Stroke is associated with substantial and growing fiscal costs to the UK government, particularly among working age people.
METHODS: Stroke prevalence estimates were sourced from published literature and stratified into working age (16-64 years) and pension age (≥65 years) populations. Stroke severity was proxied using modified Rankin Scale (mRS), with patients with mRS scores of 4 and 5 assumed unable to work and requiring welfare. The analysis was projected annually to 2035 in real terms. For the working age population, annual per-person fiscal costs of being out of work reflected an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimate. The estimate includes lost income tax and national insurance contributions, incapacity and disability benefits. The estimated OBR cost was weighted to reflect a lower-than-assumed number of individuals being out of work and claiming benefits. For those of pension age, annual fiscal costs were based on attendance allowance payments and reflected a 50% uptake rate.
RESULTS: In 2025, stroke was estimated to be associated with a fiscal cost of approximately £1.6 billion in the UK, driven primarily by working age stroke survivors. Among the working age population, total costs were estimated at £739 million. For the pension age population, total welfare costs were estimated at £596 million.England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland accounted for 81%, 11%, 5% and 3% of costs in 2025, respectively. Projections indicated that total fiscal costs for working age stroke survivors will increase to £1.7 billion by 2035, while pension age costs are projected to rise to approximately £1.1 billion by 2035, totalling £2.8 billion.
CONCLUSIONS: Stroke is associated with substantial and growing fiscal costs to the UK government, particularly among working age people.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
HPR223
Topic
Health Policy & Regulatory
Topic Subcategory
Insurance Systems & National Health Care, Public Spending & National Health Expenditures
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory)