Presentation (CTI)

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the budget impact to the National Health Service (NHS) of increased Nuvaxovid uptake versus mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273) in UK adults aged ≥75 years, accounting for differential reactogenicity profiles, and assess potential for cost neutrality or savings.
METHODS: A 2024/2025 season budget impact analysis (BIA) including Nuvaxovid, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 and no-vaccination was undertaken at current VCR for those 75+ years. Each vaccine was provided as a single, yearly-dose. Alternative Nuvaxovid market-share scenarios were compared (0% up to 15%) at constant VCR. The BIA was based on UK 2024 demographic data, 2024/2025 NHS costs including vaccine acquisition, and local epidemiological data informing the risk of general practitioner (GP) visits, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, emergency department visits, and long-COVID following symptomatic disease. Post-vaccination adverse events (AE) by severity (Grade 1-4) and nature (local, systemic) were taken from a head-to-head randomized control trial. Estimates assumed equal vaccine effectiveness, similar AE profile for mRNA-based vaccines, and a GP visit for a Grade 3 systemic event.
RESULTS: In a single year with 68% VCR, 4.4m adults aged 75+ received a vaccine at total cost of ~£621.0m. Yearly savings of £1.4m to £4.1m can be achieved by an increased uptake of Nuvaxovid by 5% and 15%, respectively. In a 5-year horizon, assuming a progressive 5% uptake of Nuvaxovid to 15%, cumulative savings of £16.2m are attainable. Results are driven by reduced Grade 3 systemic AE and savings may be greater if less conservative assumptions are made for the cost of Grade 3 local AEs.
CONCLUSIONS: By offering an improved reactogenicity profile to mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, Nuvaxovid can reduce NHS immunization budget for COVID-19 and be an alternative for sustaining COVID-19 VCR in UK elderly patients.