PROJECTED IMPACT OF SEMAGLUTIDE ON HEALTHCARE RESOURCE UTILISATION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
Author(s)
Marina Berger, BSc, MSc1, Benjamin Bray, PhD, MD1, Elisabeth de Laguiche, BSc, MSc2, Oliver Walker, PhD3, Joseph Whitaker, BSc, MSc3, Robert King, BSc, MSc1.
1Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, United Kingdom, 2Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3Novo Nordisk Ltd, Gatwick, United Kingdom.
1Lane Clark & Peacock LLP, London, United Kingdom, 2Novo Nordisk A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3Novo Nordisk Ltd, Gatwick, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: Pharmacological therapies can generate societal value across multiple indications, although this can be difficult to capture using conventional value assessments, which are typically focused on individual-level impacts within a single indication context and adopt a healthcare perspective. To address this limitation, a UK-specific multi-indication model was developed to assess the broader societal impact of semaglutide assuming theoretical maximal uptake. This abstract examines the healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) associated with semaglutide therapy.
METHODS: A UK population-level analysis estimated the 5-year (2026-2030) impact of semaglutide treatment for all eligible individuals with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular (CV) disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Baseline prevalence and overlap between conditions were derived from published literature. Clinical effects of semaglutide treatment compared to placebo or standard of care were based on evidence from clinical trials and cohort studies. Reductions in HCRU were estimated for each condition and multiplied by the prevalence differences between treatment and control groups.
RESULTS: Among the estimated 7 million individuals eligible for treatment with semaglutide annually over 5 years, the use of semaglutide was projected to reduce 4,832,912 obesity class II and III cases, 1,416 T2D cases, 129,903 CV events including 16,118 CV deaths, 5,501 MASH fibrosis stage 3-4 cases, 11,870 stage 4 CKD/end-stage renal disease cases, and 506,943 obesity- and T2D-related complications over 2026-2030. Overall, the use of semaglutide was associated with a net reduction of 2,270,103 bed days and 233,757 hospitalisations, the equivalent to 1.8 times the annual general and acute bed capacity of an average NHS provider trust in England. Of these reductions, CV-related events accounted for 1,403,681 bed days and 128,291 hospitalisations prevented.
CONCLUSIONS: The use of semaglutide is projected to generate considerable reductions in HCRU among patients living with coexisting cardiometabolic conditions. These results highlight the broader societal value of treatments addressing multimorbidity.
METHODS: A UK population-level analysis estimated the 5-year (2026-2030) impact of semaglutide treatment for all eligible individuals with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular (CV) disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Baseline prevalence and overlap between conditions were derived from published literature. Clinical effects of semaglutide treatment compared to placebo or standard of care were based on evidence from clinical trials and cohort studies. Reductions in HCRU were estimated for each condition and multiplied by the prevalence differences between treatment and control groups.
RESULTS: Among the estimated 7 million individuals eligible for treatment with semaglutide annually over 5 years, the use of semaglutide was projected to reduce 4,832,912 obesity class II and III cases, 1,416 T2D cases, 129,903 CV events including 16,118 CV deaths, 5,501 MASH fibrosis stage 3-4 cases, 11,870 stage 4 CKD/end-stage renal disease cases, and 506,943 obesity- and T2D-related complications over 2026-2030. Overall, the use of semaglutide was associated with a net reduction of 2,270,103 bed days and 233,757 hospitalisations, the equivalent to 1.8 times the annual general and acute bed capacity of an average NHS provider trust in England. Of these reductions, CV-related events accounted for 1,403,681 bed days and 128,291 hospitalisations prevented.
CONCLUSIONS: The use of semaglutide is projected to generate considerable reductions in HCRU among patients living with coexisting cardiometabolic conditions. These results highlight the broader societal value of treatments addressing multimorbidity.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE482
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Urinary/Kidney Disorders