EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS AND FORECASTING OF LACTOSE INTOLERANCE IN HUNGARY: A NATIONWIDE OUTPATIENT DATABASE ANALYSIS, 2012-2034
Author(s)
Laura Horváth, -1, Diána Elmer, MSc, PhD2, Krisztina Palkovics, MSc1, Imre Boncz, MSc, PhD, MD2, Zsuzsanna Kívés, MSc, PhD2, Luca Kovács, MSc2, István Ágoston, JD, PhD2, Tímea Csákvári, MSc, PhD1.
1Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Zalaegerszeg, Hungary, 2Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Pécs, Hungary.
1Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Zalaegerszeg, Hungary, 2Institute for Health Insurance, University of Pécs, Faculty of Health Sciences, Pécs, Hungary.
OBJECTIVES: Lactose intolerance is a growing public health concern associated with dietary restrictions, reduced quality of life, and increased healthcare utilization. The aim of this study was to analyze epidemiological trends of lactose intolerance in Hungary between 2012 and 2024 and to forecast future disease burden through 2034.
METHODS: Data were obtained from the nationwide PULVITA outpatient healthcare database. Cases of lactose intolerance were identified using ICD-10 codes E7300-E7390. Annual case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population were analyzed. Temporal trends were assessed using linear regression models adjusted for the COVID-19 pandemic period. Forecasts were generated using linear trend extrapolation with 95% prediction intervals and validated using ETS time-series analysis.
RESULTS: The number of outpatient cases related to lactose intolerance increased from 20,730 to 29,229 between 2012 and 2024 (+41.0%). Incidence rates increased from 3.3 to 5.9 per 100,000 population. A statistically significant upward trend was identified (R²=0.59; p=0.016). Forecast analyses suggest that disease burden and healthcare utilization will continue to increase over the next decade. Regression analysis demonstrated a significant annual increase in incidence (B=7.10; 95% CI: 1.38-12.82; p=0.020). The COVID-19 pandemic period was associated with a temporary decline in diagnosed cases (B=−85.85; 95% CI: −145.19 to −26.51; p=0.009).
CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological burden of lactose intolerance is increasing substantially in Hungary. These findings may contribute to healthcare capacity planning and the development of strategies supporting early recognition and disease management.
METHODS: Data were obtained from the nationwide PULVITA outpatient healthcare database. Cases of lactose intolerance were identified using ICD-10 codes E7300-E7390. Annual case numbers and incidence rates per 100,000 population were analyzed. Temporal trends were assessed using linear regression models adjusted for the COVID-19 pandemic period. Forecasts were generated using linear trend extrapolation with 95% prediction intervals and validated using ETS time-series analysis.
RESULTS: The number of outpatient cases related to lactose intolerance increased from 20,730 to 29,229 between 2012 and 2024 (+41.0%). Incidence rates increased from 3.3 to 5.9 per 100,000 population. A statistically significant upward trend was identified (R²=0.59; p=0.016). Forecast analyses suggest that disease burden and healthcare utilization will continue to increase over the next decade. Regression analysis demonstrated a significant annual increase in incidence (B=7.10; 95% CI: 1.38-12.82; p=0.020). The COVID-19 pandemic period was associated with a temporary decline in diagnosed cases (B=−85.85; 95% CI: −145.19 to −26.51; p=0.009).
CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological burden of lactose intolerance is increasing substantially in Hungary. These findings may contribute to healthcare capacity planning and the development of strategies supporting early recognition and disease management.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH168
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Gastrointestinal Disorders