A PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR COMPARING THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF ADJUVANTED RSVPREF3 AND NON-ADJUVANTED RSVPREF VACCINES IN GERMANY
Author(s)
Eleftherios Zarkadoulas, MBA, FHAS, CERA1, Maria Waize, MSc2, Nidhi Dani, MBA3, Katherine Theiss-Nyland, PhD4, Alen Marijam, MSc, PharmD2.
1GSK, Wavre, Belgium, 2GSK, Munich, Germany, 3GSK, Zug, Switzerland, 4GSK, London, United Kingdom.
1GSK, Wavre, Belgium, 2GSK, Munich, Germany, 3GSK, Zug, Switzerland, 4GSK, London, United Kingdom.
OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains a substantial cause of morbidity and hospitalization among older adults in Germany, with the highest burden in adults with comorbidities and advanced age. Protein-based and mRNA vaccines are now available for prevention. However, direct comparison of their effectiveness and public health impact is limited by differences in trial design, follow-up duration, and case definitions. Given overlapping evidence with uncertain differentiation, probabilistic modeling using real-world evidence provides a structured approach to assess comparative outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the probability that adjuvanted RSVPreF3 confers greater public health impact than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF in adults aged ≥60 years in Germany.
METHODS: A probabilistic multi-cohort Markov model was developed to estimate the incremental public health impact over an 18-month time horizon (covering two RSV seasons) among German adults aged ≥60 years. Vaccine effectiveness inputs were parameterized using probability distributions derived from published confidence intervals and propagated through 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Hospitalization outcomes were informed by real-world evidence (IVY Network, VISION Network, Veterans Health Administration target trial emulation). Scenario analyses assessed the robustness of comparative results. Outcomes, which included RSV-related hospitalizations and associated healthcare costs, were based on coverage rates ranging from 29% to 49% according to age group.
RESULTS: Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 was more likely than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF to deliver greater public health impact. Across scenarios, 65-80% of simulations favored adjuvanted RSVPreF3, corresponding to incremental hospitalization cost savings of €13-16 million versus non-adjuvanted RSVPreF over two RSV seasons.
CONCLUSIONS: Based on current real-world evidence and probabilistic modelling analysis, adjuvanted RSVPreF3 is more likely to generate greater public health impact than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF in German adults aged ≥60 years, primarily through reductions in hospitalizations and associated costs. This probabilistic framework translates uncertain evidence into decision-relevant insights for payors, patients, and healthcare professionals.
METHODS: A probabilistic multi-cohort Markov model was developed to estimate the incremental public health impact over an 18-month time horizon (covering two RSV seasons) among German adults aged ≥60 years. Vaccine effectiveness inputs were parameterized using probability distributions derived from published confidence intervals and propagated through 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Hospitalization outcomes were informed by real-world evidence (IVY Network, VISION Network, Veterans Health Administration target trial emulation). Scenario analyses assessed the robustness of comparative results. Outcomes, which included RSV-related hospitalizations and associated healthcare costs, were based on coverage rates ranging from 29% to 49% according to age group.
RESULTS: Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 was more likely than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF to deliver greater public health impact. Across scenarios, 65-80% of simulations favored adjuvanted RSVPreF3, corresponding to incremental hospitalization cost savings of €13-16 million versus non-adjuvanted RSVPreF over two RSV seasons.
CONCLUSIONS: Based on current real-world evidence and probabilistic modelling analysis, adjuvanted RSVPreF3 is more likely to generate greater public health impact than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF in German adults aged ≥60 years, primarily through reductions in hospitalizations and associated costs. This probabilistic framework translates uncertain evidence into decision-relevant insights for payors, patients, and healthcare professionals.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE595
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Topic Subcategory
Cost/Cost of Illness/Resource Use Studies
Disease
Vaccines