SPATIOTEMPORAL TRENDS AND FORECASTING FOR HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS VACCINATION COVERAGE AND CERVICAL CANCER INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION BETWEEN 2010 AND 2030
Author(s)
Eustes Kigongo, MPH1, Richeal Maria Burns, PhD1, Carmel Heaney, PhD1, Gabriela Gliga, PhD2, Louise McBride, PhD3.
1Atlantic Technological University, Sligo, Ireland, 2Atlantic Technological University, Galway, Ireland, 3Atlantic Technological University, Letterkenny, Ireland.
1Atlantic Technological University, Sligo, Ireland, 2Atlantic Technological University, Galway, Ireland, 3Atlantic Technological University, Letterkenny, Ireland.
OBJECTIVES: Cervical cancer remains the second leading cause of premature cancer mortality among European women aged 15-44 years. Despite effective human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, coverage remains suboptimal. This study examined spatiotemporal trends in HPV vaccination uptake, cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, and the burden was projected to reach 2030 across the countries of the European Union.
METHODS: Epidemiological population-level data were obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database. Temporal and spatial modelling was used to assess HPV vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence, and mortality across EU countries. Age-standardised rates per 100,000 women-years were calculated via the 2013 European Standard Population, and the 2030 burden was projected from 2022 rates under a status quo scenario.
RESULTS: HPV vaccination coverage varied widely across the EU, with most countries failing to reach the 90% target; only Portugal achieved 90% final-dose coverage from 2022-2024. The incidence of cervical cancer exceeded the elimination threshold of 4 cases per 100,000 women-years in all countries. No country is projected to meet the elimination target by 2030, while mortality is expected to rise in most settings. The highest burden remains concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe.
CONCLUSIONS: The current level of HPV vaccination coverage is too low to achieve cervical cancer elimination in the EU. The increase in mortality and persistent geographical inequalities underscore the need to scale up vaccination, screening, and treatment services to accelerate progress towards elimination.
METHODS: Epidemiological population-level data were obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database. Temporal and spatial modelling was used to assess HPV vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence, and mortality across EU countries. Age-standardised rates per 100,000 women-years were calculated via the 2013 European Standard Population, and the 2030 burden was projected from 2022 rates under a status quo scenario.
RESULTS: HPV vaccination coverage varied widely across the EU, with most countries failing to reach the 90% target; only Portugal achieved 90% final-dose coverage from 2022-2024. The incidence of cervical cancer exceeded the elimination threshold of 4 cases per 100,000 women-years in all countries. No country is projected to meet the elimination target by 2030, while mortality is expected to rise in most settings. The highest burden remains concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe.
CONCLUSIONS: The current level of HPV vaccination coverage is too low to achieve cervical cancer elimination in the EU. The increase in mortality and persistent geographical inequalities underscore the need to scale up vaccination, screening, and treatment services to accelerate progress towards elimination.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH132
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Oncology, Vaccines