PUBLIC HEALTH BENEFITS OF INCREASING INFLUENZA VACCINATION UPTAKE AMONG OLDER ADULTS AND INDIVIDUALS WITH UNDERLYING CONDITIONS IN GERMANY - A MODELING STUDY
Author(s)
Anna Meyer, PhD1, Maximilian Dichtl, MSc1, Anahita Poshtiban, PhD1, Jose Luis Bartelt Hofer, PhD2, Oliver Damm, DrPH1.
1Sanofi-Aventis Deutschland GmbH, Berlin, Germany, 2Sanofi Vaccines, Lyon, France.
1Sanofi-Aventis Deutschland GmbH, Berlin, Germany, 2Sanofi Vaccines, Lyon, France.
OBJECTIVES: In Germany, annual influenza vaccination is recommended for individuals aged 60+ years and for younger adults with underlying conditions due to the substantial burden attributable to influenza. However, vaccination rates remain well below targets of 75% set by the World Health Organization (WHO) and European Union (EU) and are currently declining.
METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet model to estimate averted outcomes (influenza cases, primary care consultations, sick leave cases, hospitalizations, deaths) in adults aged 60+ and those aged 18-59 with underlying conditions at 75% vaccination coverage. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were based on meta-analyses and multi-season randomized trials. Epidemiological input data was derived from surveillance reports published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and from peer-reviewed literature, averaging Germany-specific data from multiple influenza seasons. Two mortality scenarios were analyzed: all-cause excess mortality during periods with influenza activity (base case) and in-hospital mortality with primary influenza diagnosis (conservative estimate).
RESULTS: Our model was based on a population size of 37.2 million (25.5 million older adults and 11.8 million adults aged 18-59 with underlying conditions). Observed influenza vaccination rates (average of several recent seasons) were 39% in adults aged 60+ and 15% in age group 18-59 with underlying conditions. Achieving 75% vaccination coverage could additionally prevent 1,190,614 influenza cases, 472,674 consultations, 391,996 sick leave cases, 12,111 hospitalizations, and 4,019 deaths among approximately 37.2 million individuals (excess mortality scenario). Among adults aged 60+, this represents 509,086 additionally prevented influenza cases, 202,107 consultations, 81,680 sick leave cases, 10,064 hospitalizations, and 3,970 deaths. The conservative in-hospital mortality scenario yielded 825 total averted deaths (809 in adults aged 60+).
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in risk groups to WHO/EU targets would substantially reduce disease burden, healthcare system strain, and mortality. In-hospital mortality likely provides a conservative estimate of influenza-attributable deaths.
METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet model to estimate averted outcomes (influenza cases, primary care consultations, sick leave cases, hospitalizations, deaths) in adults aged 60+ and those aged 18-59 with underlying conditions at 75% vaccination coverage. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were based on meta-analyses and multi-season randomized trials. Epidemiological input data was derived from surveillance reports published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) and from peer-reviewed literature, averaging Germany-specific data from multiple influenza seasons. Two mortality scenarios were analyzed: all-cause excess mortality during periods with influenza activity (base case) and in-hospital mortality with primary influenza diagnosis (conservative estimate).
RESULTS: Our model was based on a population size of 37.2 million (25.5 million older adults and 11.8 million adults aged 18-59 with underlying conditions). Observed influenza vaccination rates (average of several recent seasons) were 39% in adults aged 60+ and 15% in age group 18-59 with underlying conditions. Achieving 75% vaccination coverage could additionally prevent 1,190,614 influenza cases, 472,674 consultations, 391,996 sick leave cases, 12,111 hospitalizations, and 4,019 deaths among approximately 37.2 million individuals (excess mortality scenario). Among adults aged 60+, this represents 509,086 additionally prevented influenza cases, 202,107 consultations, 81,680 sick leave cases, 10,064 hospitalizations, and 3,970 deaths. The conservative in-hospital mortality scenario yielded 825 total averted deaths (809 in adults aged 60+).
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in risk groups to WHO/EU targets would substantially reduce disease burden, healthcare system strain, and mortality. In-hospital mortality likely provides a conservative estimate of influenza-attributable deaths.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH150
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
Vaccines