CLINICAL VALUE OF OLEZARSEN IN PREVENTING THE FIRST ACUTE PANCREATITIS EVENT IN SEVERE HYPERTRIGLYCERIDEMIA: A UK MODELING STUDY
Author(s)
Nana Kragh, MSc1, Zalmai Hakimi, PharmD, PhD2, Jameel Nazir, PhD3, Michal Pochopien, MSc, PhD4, Tobiasz Lemanski, MSc5, Wiktoria Miszczyk, MSc5.
1Sobi, Stockholm, Sweden, 2Sobi, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 3Sobi, LUTON, United Kingdom, 4Clever-Access, Krakow, France, 5Clever-Access, Krakow, Poland.
1Sobi, Stockholm, Sweden, 2Sobi, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 3Sobi, LUTON, United Kingdom, 4Clever-Access, Krakow, France, 5Clever-Access, Krakow, Poland.
OBJECTIVES: Severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) markedly increases the risk of acute pancreatitis (AP)—a leading cause of gastrointestinal hospitalization—particularly at triglyceride levels ≥880 mg/dL, with the first event often initiating a cascade of recurrent events and long-term complications. This study models the clinical value of preventing the first AP event, measured by avoided events and downstream complications.
METHODS: A population-level model evaluated outcomes in approximately 10,000 UK patients with sHTG (97.2% AP-naïve) treated with olezarsen plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone over a 10-year horizon, based on findings from literature. Treatment effects of olezarsen reflected substantial triglyceride (TG) reductions, with most patients achieving levels below high-risk thresholds (TG ≥880 mg/dL). The model captured:
• First and recurrent AP events
• AP-related complications (chronic pancreatitis, mortality)
• Broader cardiometabolic complications (CKD, diabetes, cardiovascular events).
Analyses compared outcomes when treatment is initiated before versus after the first AP event.
RESULTS: Patients with TG ≥880 mg/dL had ≥3.5-fold higher risk of first AP compared with lower TG levels. Olezarsen treatment reduced AP risk by up to 80% in AP-naïve patients and enabled the majority of patients to move below the high-risk TG threshold. Over 10 years (10,000 patients), treatment with olezarsen prevented ~480 first AP events (595 vs 115), ~1,000 recurrent AP events and over 4,800 total complications across disease areas. Preventing the first AP event was associated with substantial reductions in downstream burden, including chronic pancreatitis, diabetes onset, CKD and cardiovascular events.
CONCLUSIONS: Preventing the first AP event in sHTG is critical to reducing overall disease burden. Model projections suggest that early TG lowering with olezarsen substantially decreased first AP events and prevents a cascade of subsequent complications. These findings indicate that the greatest clinical benefit is achieved when treatment is initiated prior to the first AP event, supporting a proactive treatment approach in high-risk patients.
METHODS: A population-level model evaluated outcomes in approximately 10,000 UK patients with sHTG (97.2% AP-naïve) treated with olezarsen plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone over a 10-year horizon, based on findings from literature. Treatment effects of olezarsen reflected substantial triglyceride (TG) reductions, with most patients achieving levels below high-risk thresholds (TG ≥880 mg/dL). The model captured:
• First and recurrent AP events
• AP-related complications (chronic pancreatitis, mortality)
• Broader cardiometabolic complications (CKD, diabetes, cardiovascular events).
Analyses compared outcomes when treatment is initiated before versus after the first AP event.
RESULTS: Patients with TG ≥880 mg/dL had ≥3.5-fold higher risk of first AP compared with lower TG levels. Olezarsen treatment reduced AP risk by up to 80% in AP-naïve patients and enabled the majority of patients to move below the high-risk TG threshold. Over 10 years (10,000 patients), treatment with olezarsen prevented ~480 first AP events (595 vs 115), ~1,000 recurrent AP events and over 4,800 total complications across disease areas. Preventing the first AP event was associated with substantial reductions in downstream burden, including chronic pancreatitis, diabetes onset, CKD and cardiovascular events.
CONCLUSIONS: Preventing the first AP event in sHTG is critical to reducing overall disease burden. Model projections suggest that early TG lowering with olezarsen substantially decreased first AP events and prevents a cascade of subsequent complications. These findings indicate that the greatest clinical benefit is achieved when treatment is initiated prior to the first AP event, supporting a proactive treatment approach in high-risk patients.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
SA46
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health, Study Approaches
Topic Subcategory
Decision Modeling & Simulation
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), Gastrointestinal Disorders