BUDGET IMPACT OF INTRODUCING SEMAGLUTIDE 2.4 MG FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF OBESITY IN THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA: A MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AND AVIATION (MODA) PERSPECTIVE
Author(s)
Mohammed Alzahrani, PhD1, Yasser Albaraka, BSc, MSc, PhD2, Ibtisam H. Alharbi, PharmD, MSc3, Nasser Almasri, PharmD4, Alyah AlMoeed, PharmD2.
1Ministry of Defense Health Services, Riaydh, Saudi Arabia, 2Ministry of Defense Health Services, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3Ministry of Defense Health Services, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 4Prince Sultan Medical Military Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
1Ministry of Defense Health Services, Riaydh, Saudi Arabia, 2Ministry of Defense Health Services, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 3Ministry of Defense Health Services, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 4Prince Sultan Medical Military Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
OBJECTIVES: Obesity imposes a rising clinical and economic burden in Saudi Arabia, contributing to type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, and cardiovascular disease. The objective of this study is to evaluate the financial impact of introducing Semaglutide 2.4 mg over a 5-year time horizon from a Ministry of Defense and Aviation perspective by incorporating real-world treatment pathways, comorbidity burden, and complication-specific cost offsets using a localized real-world flow model.
METHODS: A 5-year budget impact model (2026-2030) was developed to compare the current treatment mix (tirzepatide, liraglutide 3.0 mg, and bariatric surgery) with a future scenario incorporating semaglutide 2.4 mg, assuming 50% uptake in Year 1 increasing to 70% by Year 3. The target population was derived from MODA treatment pathways, epidemiological data, and validated clinical assumptions, yielding a cohort of 8,145 individuals, of whom 22% were diagnosed with obesity. Cost components included drug acquisition (based on SFDA list prices), bariatric surgery, and management of 10 obesity-related comorbidities. Model robustness was evaluated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). All costs are presented in Saudi Arabian Riyals (SAR).
RESULTS: Total 5-year payer costs were SAR 10,004,072 (current without Semaglutide 2.4) versus SAR 8,690,282 (new scenario with Semaglutide 2.4), yielding a net saving of SAR 1,313,790 (-13.1%). Therapeutic management savings drove the majority of offsets (SAR 1,308,178; -30%), with additional complication cost reductions of SAR 5,612 (-0.10%). Annual savings grew from SAR 49,516 in year 1 to SAR 409,595 in year 5. PSA confirmed 100% probability of budget savings across all simulations.
CONCLUSIONS: Introducing semaglutide 2.4 mg within the MODA formulary is projected to generate SAR 1,313,790 in net savings over 5 years. The robust cost-saving profile, supported by 100% PSA probability of savings, provides a strong clinical and economic rationale for formulary inclusion and reimbursement within the MODA healthcare system.
METHODS: A 5-year budget impact model (2026-2030) was developed to compare the current treatment mix (tirzepatide, liraglutide 3.0 mg, and bariatric surgery) with a future scenario incorporating semaglutide 2.4 mg, assuming 50% uptake in Year 1 increasing to 70% by Year 3. The target population was derived from MODA treatment pathways, epidemiological data, and validated clinical assumptions, yielding a cohort of 8,145 individuals, of whom 22% were diagnosed with obesity. Cost components included drug acquisition (based on SFDA list prices), bariatric surgery, and management of 10 obesity-related comorbidities. Model robustness was evaluated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). All costs are presented in Saudi Arabian Riyals (SAR).
RESULTS: Total 5-year payer costs were SAR 10,004,072 (current without Semaglutide 2.4) versus SAR 8,690,282 (new scenario with Semaglutide 2.4), yielding a net saving of SAR 1,313,790 (-13.1%). Therapeutic management savings drove the majority of offsets (SAR 1,308,178; -30%), with additional complication cost reductions of SAR 5,612 (-0.10%). Annual savings grew from SAR 49,516 in year 1 to SAR 409,595 in year 5. PSA confirmed 100% probability of budget savings across all simulations.
CONCLUSIONS: Introducing semaglutide 2.4 mg within the MODA formulary is projected to generate SAR 1,313,790 in net savings over 5 years. The robust cost-saving profile, supported by 100% PSA probability of savings, provides a strong clinical and economic rationale for formulary inclusion and reimbursement within the MODA healthcare system.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE174
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Technology Assessment, Real World Data & Information Systems
Topic Subcategory
Budget Impact Analysis
Disease
Diabetes/Endocrine/Metabolic Disorders (including obesity), No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas