ANTICIPATED CLINICAL OUTCOMES OF COPD PATIENT EDUCATION PROGRAMS IN RUSSIA
Author(s)
Dmitry Shchurov, PhD1, Nuriya Musina, PhD2, Lidia Nikitina, PhD1, Sergey Avdeev, PhD3.
1Sechenov University, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2Sechenov University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 3(Sechenov Univerity, Moscow, Russian Federation.
1Sechenov University, Moscow, Russian Federation, 2Sechenov University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 3(Sechenov Univerity, Moscow, Russian Federation.
OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to assess clinical outcomes of implementing structured education programs (schools) for COPD patients in Russia.
METHODS: The clinical outcomes study was conducted using a Markov model over a 10-year time horizon. The initial COPD cohort in the model corresponded to the total number of COPD patients in Russia - 819,000, and the annual number of new cases corresponded to official COPD incidence data - 95,000. Coverage was modeled to increase from 20% in year 1 to 95% in year 5, with stable 95% coverage from year 6 to year 10. The model states included: “COPD without exacerbation”, “exacerbation and outpatient visit”, “exacerbation and hospitalization”, and “death”. The hospitalization rate in the absence of schools was 0.251, and with school participation - 0.139 per year. The annual death rates were 0.059 and 0.036, respectively. Frequencies were then converted into transition probabilities for 1 cycle in the Markov model. The outcomes included: the number of COPD exacerbations requiring medical attention (outpatient or inpatient) and the number of premature deaths. No discounting of clinical outcomes was performed. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted.
RESULTS: Over 10 years, COPD schools would prevent 1.7 million exacerbations requiring medical attention and 146 thousand premature deaths. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the study results.
CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of COPD patient education programs will significantly improve clinical outcomes.
METHODS: The clinical outcomes study was conducted using a Markov model over a 10-year time horizon. The initial COPD cohort in the model corresponded to the total number of COPD patients in Russia - 819,000, and the annual number of new cases corresponded to official COPD incidence data - 95,000. Coverage was modeled to increase from 20% in year 1 to 95% in year 5, with stable 95% coverage from year 6 to year 10. The model states included: “COPD without exacerbation”, “exacerbation and outpatient visit”, “exacerbation and hospitalization”, and “death”. The hospitalization rate in the absence of schools was 0.251, and with school participation - 0.139 per year. The annual death rates were 0.059 and 0.036, respectively. Frequencies were then converted into transition probabilities for 1 cycle in the Markov model. The outcomes included: the number of COPD exacerbations requiring medical attention (outpatient or inpatient) and the number of premature deaths. No discounting of clinical outcomes was performed. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted.
RESULTS: Over 10 years, COPD schools would prevent 1.7 million exacerbations requiring medical attention and 146 thousand premature deaths. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the study results.
CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of COPD patient education programs will significantly improve clinical outcomes.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
CO82
Topic
Clinical Outcomes, Epidemiology & Public Health, Organizational Practices
Topic Subcategory
Clinical Outcomes Assessment, Comparative Effectiveness or Efficacy
Disease
Respiratory-Related Disorders (Allergy, Asthma, Smoking, Other Respiratory)