A PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR COMPARING THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF ADJUVANTED RSVPREF3 AND NON-ADJUVANTED RSVPREF VACCINES IN CANADA
Author(s)
Eleftherios Zarkadoulas, MBA, FHAS, CERA1, Bruce Seet, PhD, MBA2, Lisa White, PhD3, Nidhi Dani, MBA4, Nicolas Iragorri, MSc2.
1HEOR, GSK, Wavre, Belgium, 2GSK Canada, Mississauga, ON, Canada, 3GSK, London, United Kingdom, 4GSK Glaxo Smith Kline GmbH, Zug, Switzerland.
1HEOR, GSK, Wavre, Belgium, 2GSK Canada, Mississauga, ON, Canada, 3GSK, London, United Kingdom, 4GSK Glaxo Smith Kline GmbH, Zug, Switzerland.
OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains a substantial cause of morbidity and hospitalization among older adults in Canada, with protein-based and mRNA vaccines now available for prevention. However, direct comparison of their effectiveness and public health impact is limited by differences in trial design, follow-up duration, and case definitions. Given overlapping evidence with uncertain differentiation, probabilistic modelling using real-world evidence provides a structured approach to assess comparative outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the probability that adjuvanted RSVPreF3 confers greater public health impact than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF in Canadian adults aged ≥60 years.
METHODS: A probabilistic multi-cohort Markov model was developed to estimate outcomes over 18 months (two RSV seasons) in Canada for adults aged ≥60 years. Vaccine effectiveness inputs were parameterized using probability distributions derived from published confidence intervals and propagated through 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Hospitalization outcomes were informed by real-world evidence (IVY Network, VISION Network, and Veterans Health Administration target trial emulation). Scenario analyses assessed the robustness of comparative results. Outcomes included number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one hospitalization, RSV-related hospitalizations, and associated healthcare costs are based on coverage rates from 25%-40% according to age group.
RESULTS: Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 was more likely than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF to deliver greater public health impact. Across scenarios, 65-79% of simulations favored adjuvanted RSVPreF3, corresponding to incremental hospitalization cost savings of 35-49 million Canadian Dollars versus non-adjuvanted RSVPreF over two RSV seasons. Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 demonstrated lower NNV, ranging from 232-246 to prevent one hospitalization compared to 260-286 for non-adjuvanted RSVPreF across scenarios.
CONCLUSIONS: Under current real-world evidence and probabilistic modelling analysis, adjuvanted RSVPreF3 is more likely to generate greater public health impact than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF in Canadian adults aged ≥60 years, primarily through reductions in hospitalizations and associated costs. This probabilistic framework translates uncertain evidence into decision-relevant insights for payors, patients, and healthcare professionals.
METHODS: A probabilistic multi-cohort Markov model was developed to estimate outcomes over 18 months (two RSV seasons) in Canada for adults aged ≥60 years. Vaccine effectiveness inputs were parameterized using probability distributions derived from published confidence intervals and propagated through 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Hospitalization outcomes were informed by real-world evidence (IVY Network, VISION Network, and Veterans Health Administration target trial emulation). Scenario analyses assessed the robustness of comparative results. Outcomes included number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one hospitalization, RSV-related hospitalizations, and associated healthcare costs are based on coverage rates from 25%-40% according to age group.
RESULTS: Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 was more likely than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF to deliver greater public health impact. Across scenarios, 65-79% of simulations favored adjuvanted RSVPreF3, corresponding to incremental hospitalization cost savings of 35-49 million Canadian Dollars versus non-adjuvanted RSVPreF over two RSV seasons. Adjuvanted RSVPreF3 demonstrated lower NNV, ranging from 232-246 to prevent one hospitalization compared to 260-286 for non-adjuvanted RSVPreF across scenarios.
CONCLUSIONS: Under current real-world evidence and probabilistic modelling analysis, adjuvanted RSVPreF3 is more likely to generate greater public health impact than non-adjuvanted RSVPreF in Canadian adults aged ≥60 years, primarily through reductions in hospitalizations and associated costs. This probabilistic framework translates uncertain evidence into decision-relevant insights for payors, patients, and healthcare professionals.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE284
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Disease
Vaccines