REVERSING FINLAND'S LONG-TERM DECLINE IN INDUSTRY-SPONSORED CLINICAL TRIALS COULD ADD OVER €1 BILLION IN SOCIETAL VALUE BY 2030
Author(s)
Saku Väätäinen, PhD1, Nadia Tamminen, PhD2, Erkki Soini, MSc1.
1ESiOR Oy, Kuopio, Finland, 2Pharma Industry Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
1ESiOR Oy, Kuopio, Finland, 2Pharma Industry Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
OBJECTIVES: Industry-sponsored clinical trials create substantial value to society: a single trial conducted in Finland generates an estimated €10 million in societal value. However, the number of trials initiated in Finland has fallen for over 25 years. We examined the drivers of the Finnish decline, potential keys to reversing the trend, and the societal value at stake under continued decline compared to a potential yet realistic course correction.
METHODS: Stakeholder surveys were conducted in Spring 2025 among Pharma Industry Finland member companies (the national pharmaceutical industry association; n=19) and Finnish university and central hospitals (n=46 from 15 hospitals), complemented by expert interviews in Summer 2025. Numbers of trials initiated annually in by 2030 were projected from historical trends, based on Finnish Medicines Agency data, and compared with a 2024-level baseline and a survey-based ideal scenario. Societal value was modelled using a previously published estimated value per-trial.
RESULTS: Approximately half of the trials seeking a Finnish site start trial in Finland. Key barriers for research were small, fragmented patient populations, varying research practices, complex authorisation and contracting, recruitment failure, and lack of research incentives. If the 10-year downward trend continues, 23 (-28%) fewer commercial trials will start in 2030, leading to annual societal loss of €228 million and cumulative loss of €805 million by 2030. Based on hospitals’ estimates, 73% (69-85%) more trials could be done under ideal conditions, adding estimated €427 (407-497) million annual and €1.26 (1.21-1.48) Billion cumulative value by 2030, compared to the current trend.
CONCLUSIONS: Finland’s declining clinical-trial activity causes a substantial, avoidable loss of societal value. Reframing trials as an investment, building national coordination to operate as a single national research area, and creating aligned incentives across stakeholders could reverse the trend and unlock over €1 billion of societal value by 2030.
METHODS: Stakeholder surveys were conducted in Spring 2025 among Pharma Industry Finland member companies (the national pharmaceutical industry association; n=19) and Finnish university and central hospitals (n=46 from 15 hospitals), complemented by expert interviews in Summer 2025. Numbers of trials initiated annually in by 2030 were projected from historical trends, based on Finnish Medicines Agency data, and compared with a 2024-level baseline and a survey-based ideal scenario. Societal value was modelled using a previously published estimated value per-trial.
RESULTS: Approximately half of the trials seeking a Finnish site start trial in Finland. Key barriers for research were small, fragmented patient populations, varying research practices, complex authorisation and contracting, recruitment failure, and lack of research incentives. If the 10-year downward trend continues, 23 (-28%) fewer commercial trials will start in 2030, leading to annual societal loss of €228 million and cumulative loss of €805 million by 2030. Based on hospitals’ estimates, 73% (69-85%) more trials could be done under ideal conditions, adding estimated €427 (407-497) million annual and €1.26 (1.21-1.48) Billion cumulative value by 2030, compared to the current trend.
CONCLUSIONS: Finland’s declining clinical-trial activity causes a substantial, avoidable loss of societal value. Reframing trials as an investment, building national coordination to operate as a single national research area, and creating aligned incentives across stakeholders could reverse the trend and unlock over €1 billion of societal value by 2030.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE48
Topic
Economic Evaluation, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care, Health Technology Assessment
Disease
Cardiovascular Disorders (including MI, Stroke, Circulatory), Geriatrics, Oncology