PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF INCREASING LAIV UPTAKE IN ESTONIAN CHILDREN
Author(s)
Maie Thetloff, MASc, MSc1, Pilleriin Soodla, PhD2, Elisabeth Võrk, BA3, Helen Isok-Paas, MSc4, Klas Bergenheim, PhD5, Katja Berg, PhD6, Lise RETAT, PhD7.
1Access Manager, AstraZeneca, Tallinn, Estonia, 2Tartu University Clinic, Tartu, Estonia, 33University of Tartu School of Economics and Business Administration, Tartu, Estonia, 4AstraZeneca Estonia, Tallinn, Estonia, 5AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden, 6AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 7AstraZeneca Spain, Barcelona, Spain.
1Access Manager, AstraZeneca, Tallinn, Estonia, 2Tartu University Clinic, Tartu, Estonia, 33University of Tartu School of Economics and Business Administration, Tartu, Estonia, 4AstraZeneca Estonia, Tallinn, Estonia, 5AstraZeneca, Gothenburg, Sweden, 6AstraZeneca, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 7AstraZeneca Spain, Barcelona, Spain.
OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the public health and economic impact of increasing live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) uptake among Estonian children aged 2-7 years, including potential indirect benefits for the wider population.
METHODS: A peer-reviewed SEIR transmission model was used to estimate the effect of higher paediatric influenza vaccination coverage over one influenza season, reflecting 2024-2025 data and three influenza strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Victoria). A decision-tree model translated infections into clinical outcomes, healthcare resource use, and mortality. The base case assumed 8.10% vaccination coverage with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV), while the scenario of interest assessed 15% coverage (67% LAIV, 33% IIV), based on market research and real-world evidence. The economic evaluation was conducted from a societal perspective.
RESULTS: Estonia has a population of 1.36 million, of whom about 85,000 are 2-7 years old. Increasing LAIV coverage was projected to reduce the influenza burden directly in children and indirectly in the wider population, including high-risk groups. The strategy was cost-saving from a societal perspective, with healthcare cost savings of approximately €93,700 per season due to fewer inpatient admissions and outpatient visits. The model estimated that around 6,250 influenza infections would be avoided each season in both the target and broader populations.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing LAIV uptake among Estonian children aged 2-7 years could reduce influenza-related disease burden and healthcare utilization while being cost-saving to society. Even a modest increase in paediatric vaccination coverage may result in substantial benefits for the overall population, particularly through indirect protection of vulnerable groups.
METHODS: A peer-reviewed SEIR transmission model was used to estimate the effect of higher paediatric influenza vaccination coverage over one influenza season, reflecting 2024-2025 data and three influenza strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Victoria). A decision-tree model translated infections into clinical outcomes, healthcare resource use, and mortality. The base case assumed 8.10% vaccination coverage with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV), while the scenario of interest assessed 15% coverage (67% LAIV, 33% IIV), based on market research and real-world evidence. The economic evaluation was conducted from a societal perspective.
RESULTS: Estonia has a population of 1.36 million, of whom about 85,000 are 2-7 years old. Increasing LAIV coverage was projected to reduce the influenza burden directly in children and indirectly in the wider population, including high-risk groups. The strategy was cost-saving from a societal perspective, with healthcare cost savings of approximately €93,700 per season due to fewer inpatient admissions and outpatient visits. The model estimated that around 6,250 influenza infections would be avoided each season in both the target and broader populations.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing LAIV uptake among Estonian children aged 2-7 years could reduce influenza-related disease burden and healthcare utilization while being cost-saving to society. Even a modest increase in paediatric vaccination coverage may result in substantial benefits for the overall population, particularly through indirect protection of vulnerable groups.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EPH45
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health, Health Policy & Regulatory, Health Service Delivery & Process of Care
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
No Additional Disease & Conditions/Specialized Treatment Areas, Vaccines