MODELING THE POTENTIAL PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF COVID-19 VACCINATION IN CHILE
Author(s)
Tomas Eduardo Abbott, MS1, Carlos Fernando Mendoza, PhD2, Sudipa Chauhan, PhD3, Juan Francsico Falconi, MS4, Ben Yarnoff, PhD5.
1Pfizer Chile S.A., Santiago, Chile, 2Pfizer México, S.A. de C.V., Cuajimalpa, Distrito Federal, Mexico, 3PPD Evidera Health Economics & Market Access, Ottawa, AB, Canada, 4Pfizer Vaccines Medical and Scientific Affair, Santiago, Chile, 5Thermo Fisher Scientific, Siler City, NC, USA.
1Pfizer Chile S.A., Santiago, Chile, 2Pfizer México, S.A. de C.V., Cuajimalpa, Distrito Federal, Mexico, 3PPD Evidera Health Economics & Market Access, Ottawa, AB, Canada, 4Pfizer Vaccines Medical and Scientific Affair, Santiago, Chile, 5Thermo Fisher Scientific, Siler City, NC, USA.
OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Chile.
METHODS: A combined Markov and decision tree model was used to estimate the economic and public health impact of vaccination strategies targeting various age groups in Chile over a one-year time horizon. Age-stratified annual rates of infection, hospitalization, and death, were informed by local surveillance data from 2024. Vaccine coverage rates were based on estimates of COVID-19 vaccine uptake as of 2024 (age 18-49: 12%; age 50-64: 35%; age 65-74: 51%; and age ≥ 75: 56%). Cost inputs were informed by local published literature and vaccine effectiveness parameters were informed by global published literature.
RESULTS: In the base case, a vaccination strategy targeting individuals aged ≥65 years and the high-risk population aged 18-64 years compared with no additional vaccination was estimated to administer 1,965,079 vaccines and prevent 9,378 symptomatic cases, 626 deaths, 2,111 hospitalizations, and 5,660 lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Direct medical costs increased by $16.5 million and total societal costs decreased by $47.7 million. Vaccination was cost-effective from the payer perspective ($2,908/QALY) and cost saving from the societal perspective. A vaccination strategy targeting individuals aged ≥50 years and the high-risk population aged 18-49 years was estimated to prevent even more cases, hospitalizations, and lost QALYs and was also cost-effective from the payer perspective ($2,999/QALY) and cost saving from the societal perspective. Increasing vaccine uptake was estimated to substantially increase the public health impact of vaccination.
CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination strategy targeting individuals aged ≥65 years and those aged 18-64 years at high risk yields substantial public health and economic gains annually and is cost-effective or cost-savings. Including a broader range of ages in vaccination strategies and increasing vaccine coverage in the eligible population could be an important public health strategy and may offer cost-savings.
METHODS: A combined Markov and decision tree model was used to estimate the economic and public health impact of vaccination strategies targeting various age groups in Chile over a one-year time horizon. Age-stratified annual rates of infection, hospitalization, and death, were informed by local surveillance data from 2024. Vaccine coverage rates were based on estimates of COVID-19 vaccine uptake as of 2024 (age 18-49: 12%; age 50-64: 35%; age 65-74: 51%; and age ≥ 75: 56%). Cost inputs were informed by local published literature and vaccine effectiveness parameters were informed by global published literature.
RESULTS: In the base case, a vaccination strategy targeting individuals aged ≥65 years and the high-risk population aged 18-64 years compared with no additional vaccination was estimated to administer 1,965,079 vaccines and prevent 9,378 symptomatic cases, 626 deaths, 2,111 hospitalizations, and 5,660 lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Direct medical costs increased by $16.5 million and total societal costs decreased by $47.7 million. Vaccination was cost-effective from the payer perspective ($2,908/QALY) and cost saving from the societal perspective. A vaccination strategy targeting individuals aged ≥50 years and the high-risk population aged 18-49 years was estimated to prevent even more cases, hospitalizations, and lost QALYs and was also cost-effective from the payer perspective ($2,999/QALY) and cost saving from the societal perspective. Increasing vaccine uptake was estimated to substantially increase the public health impact of vaccination.
CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination strategy targeting individuals aged ≥65 years and those aged 18-64 years at high risk yields substantial public health and economic gains annually and is cost-effective or cost-savings. Including a broader range of ages in vaccination strategies and increasing vaccine coverage in the eligible population could be an important public health strategy and may offer cost-savings.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2026-11, ISPOR Europe 2026, Vienna, Austria
Value in Health, Volume 29, Issue 12S
Code
EE144
Topic
Economic Evaluation
Disease
Vaccines